Token Launches · resolved market
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e3c65b0c5a9d8b7f9d3220e559eabcb713c0f99568a8c03cb91e0853785b5d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,227,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,143,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,227,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac64…77d9backed No | 3c | 112,068$3,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,152.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 67,799$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.2 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 1c | 61,528$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.4 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b5…c605backed No | 0c | 35,134$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 1c | 26,986$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.34 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 25,140$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…ea5bbacked No | 1c | 21,968$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…4940backed No | 1c | 21,142$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 18,413$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.08 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb7…ea3cbacked No | 3c | 17,055$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05da…ae41backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…5f67backed No | 1c | 10,161$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…9c1cbacked No | 2c | 10,012$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…033ebacked No | 1c | 10,002$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed No | 0c | 9,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 1c | 8,189$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 0c | 8,018$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…c928backed No | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 0c | 7,609$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed No | 0c | 7,405$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…73a2backed No | 1c | 7,378$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked No | 1c | 6,205$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 69c | 5,377$3,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.72 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 5c | 5,347$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1743…80c0backed No | 1c | 5,098$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 1c | 4,750$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd016…088dbacked No | 2c | 4,534$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 0c | 4,255$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcf…78a2backed No | 2c | 4,207$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…c75cbacked No | 2c | 4,173$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…534ebacked No | 1c | 4,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…f38bbacked Yes | 68c | 3,856$2,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4b…3742backed No | 1c | 3,735$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 3,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e2…ccc7backed No | 2c | 3,277$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed No | 1c | 3,149$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1e…1746backed No | 1c | 3,129$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4757…0d79backed No | 1c | 3,120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…003fbacked No | 1c | 3,120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…1316backed No | 2c | 3,106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 27cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed No | 1c | 3,019$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…1453backed No | 0c | 2,943$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…6572backed No | 1c | 2,857$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 68c | 2,849$1,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.9 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4806…7ac9backed No | 2c | 2,718$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…0527backed No | 63c | 2,709$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb158…01f6backed No | 29c | 2,563$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed No | 1c | 2,509$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…e36bbacked No | 2c | 2,473$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad6…5643backed No | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342f…ff3abacked No | 11c | 2,022$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 25c | 1,931$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf64d…58d2backed No | 47c | 1,921$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…6b74backed No | 1c | 1,798$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 1c | 1,577$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x766b…6e6fbacked No | 11c | 1,576$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…da65backed No | 42c | 1,538$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…30fcbacked No | 1c | 1,505$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked No | 1c | 1,462$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…9e4dbacked No | 1c | 1,420$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f4…6cd5backed No | 3c | 1,404$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf378…8196backed No | 2c | 1,354$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a07…6118backed No | 25c | 1,322$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x396a…b1d3backed No | 1c | 1,292$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…9fbbbacked No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6052…fc60backed No | 1c | 1,239$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde51…9a8bbacked No | 1c | 1,210$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…63f3backed No | 1c | 1,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 8c | 1,136$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…8fdfbacked No | 33c | 1,099$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e6…4ea0backed No | 2c | 1,084$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 10c | 1,048$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…df2abacked No | 1c | 995.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2669…0e10backed No | 27c | 990.11$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c8…1b36backed No | 5c | 956.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc075…ff37backed No | 26c | 952.87$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf0…5d64backed No | 9c | 939.83$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…1957backed No | 1c | 763.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…79cbbacked No | 30c | 664.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c61…1d1abacked No | 2c | 634.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…871dbacked No | 32c | 627.77$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…3c41backed No | 2c | 591.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd065…93e8backed No | 9c | 553.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 74c | 553.35$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.28 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x503c…f6b6backed No | 4c | 532.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x123b…9faabacked No | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Yes | 69c | 444$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…56c6backed No | 31c | 424.71$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd6…a7ebbacked No | 3c | 400.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f5…871dbacked No | 11c | 400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…ee94backed No | 5c | 365.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes | 73c | 346.33$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…50aebacked No | 25c | 324.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…f098backed No | 3c | 312.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…7879backed No | 33c | 308.41$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed No | 12c | 303.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 11c | 281.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?this page
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31?Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? No won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 20? No won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? No won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.