TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,227,801
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,143,709

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,227,801 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac64…77d9backed No3c112,068$3,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,152.0570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c67,799$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.21712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No1c61,528$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.42313%3 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-79.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b5…c605backed No0c35,134$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2460%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No1c26,986$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.344721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No0c25,140$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.37220%0 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd7…ea5bbacked No1c21,968$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x405f…4940backed No1c21,142$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.491816.7%3 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+93.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c18,413$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.087663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb7…ea3cbacked No3c17,055$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05da…ae41backed No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf81a…5f67backed No1c10,161$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f85…9c1cbacked No2c10,012$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe99e…033ebacked No1c10,002$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa136…2965backed No0c9,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-86%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No1c8,189$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.588052.5%42 W · 38 L+11.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No0c8,018$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.18462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-80.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf6b8…c928backed No0c8,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No0c7,609$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4411124.3%27 W · 84 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+153.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed No0c7,405$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.642711.1%3 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-65.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbce5…73a2backed No1c7,378$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04db…f0fdbacked No1c6,205$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.99280%0 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed Yes69c5,377$3,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,687.7223841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed No5c5,347$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.081118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1743…80c0backed No1c5,098$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No1c4,750$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd016…088dbacked No2c4,534$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.08933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No0c4,255$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.71119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-84.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfcf…78a2backed No2c4,207$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf709…c75cbacked No2c4,173$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x741a…534ebacked No1c4,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d2…f38bbacked Yes68c3,856$2,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.841540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf4b…3742backed No1c3,735$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No0c3,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19e2…ccc7backed No2c3,277$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad7d…f545backed No1c3,149$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff1e…1746backed No1c3,129$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4757…0d79backed No1c3,120$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b11…003fbacked No1c3,120$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff0…1316backed No2c3,106$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.73862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick27cpaid+123.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed No1c3,019$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…1453backed No0c2,943$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid+41.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e93…6572backed No1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x495c…512bbacked Yes68c2,849$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.92035%7 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4806…7ac9backed No2c2,718$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…0527backed No63c2,709$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb158…01f6backed No29c2,563$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed No1c2,509$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x551a…e36bbacked No2c2,473$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad6…5643backed No1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x342f…ff3abacked No11c2,022$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No1c2,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162020%4 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked No25c1,931$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4912630.8%8 W · 18 L+4.9wins+0.19per pick12cpaid+180.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf64d…58d2backed No47c1,921$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.881457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+98.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbabc…6b74backed No1c1,798$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No1c1,577$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x766b…6e6fbacked No11c1,576$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+173.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdc4…da65backed No42c1,538$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda48…30fcbacked No1c1,505$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked No1c1,462$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2310320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60fe…9e4dbacked No1c1,420$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f4…6cd5backed No3c1,404$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf378…8196backed No2c1,354$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a07…6118backed No25c1,322$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x396a…b1d3backed No1c1,292$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ff…9fbbbacked No1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6052…fc60backed No1c1,239$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde51…9a8bbacked No1c1,210$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1d…63f3backed No1c1,200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No8c1,136$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.64273.7%1 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e64…8fdfbacked No33c1,099$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93e6…4ea0backed No2c1,084$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No10c1,048$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.795623.2%13 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fcd…df2abacked No1c995.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2669…0e10backed No27c990.11$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52c8…1b36backed No5c956.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-61.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc075…ff37backed No26c952.87$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf0…5d64backed No9c939.83$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x216e…1957backed No1c763.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc0d…79cbbacked No30c664.26$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c61…1d1abacked No2c634.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21e2…871dbacked No32c627.77$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41c7…3c41backed No2c591.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd065…93e8backed No9c553.68$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed Yes74c553.35$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.285100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+78.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x503c…f6b6backed No4c532.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x123b…9faabacked No2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.51533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+113.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad6…9963backed Yes69c444$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.64850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f2f…56c6backed No31c424.71$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.89616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcd6…a7ebbacked No3c400.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-67.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f5…871dbacked No11c400$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+41.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac4…ee94backed No5c365.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes73c346.33$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.69966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe937…50aebacked No25c324.08$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-57.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9f…f098backed No3c312.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1923…7879backed No33c308.41$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.71154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6f2…6ff5backed No12c303.7$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.37944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+96.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No11c281.83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8716927.8%47 W · 122 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.