Token Launches · resolved market
Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66db22e407a28f548dfef6e2606e077c8e4d1b2746b1ec9228b8a502853efb8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $322,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $336,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $322,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a39…e5acbacked Yes | 0c | 120,885$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 18c | 35,117$6,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,348.56 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…37d9backed No | 79c | 5,602$4,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.34 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x311f…175abacked Yes | 7c | 5,051$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b2febacked No | 75c | 4,528$3,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…8dfcbacked Yes | 2c | 4,411$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3441…fe36backed Yes | 31c | 3,857$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,387$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.24 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 6c | 3,349$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1961…ed4fbacked No | 78c | 3,347$2,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…8ab7backed Yes | 3c | 2,978$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 4c | 2,661$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 13c | 2,493$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.93 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…0ea7backed Yes | 29c | 2,233$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19a…82febacked Yes | 2c | 2,189$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f3…f6b1backed Yes | 7c | 2,172$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 10c | 2,105$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.73 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…7879backed Yes | 4c | 2,020$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 58c | 2,000$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.5 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe915…4a53backed Yes | 6c | 1,926$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeedd…d0f0backed No | 71c | 1,894$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…f58abacked Yes | 2c | 1,823$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a2…a1cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,793$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961d…810bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,664$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked No | 75c | 1,662$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.07 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…6d39backed Yes | 4c | 1,622$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -61%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…7a28backed Yes | 33c | 1,603$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x583f…a08cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,522$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 1,501$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.02 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 1,495$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.84 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…00c0backed No | 77c | 1,381$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 9c | 1,363$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.91 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd016…088dbacked No | 44c | 1,337$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…80a3backed No | 73c | 1,246$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.5 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1b…adcdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,024$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,008$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 15c | 1,006$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.14 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2404…0fddbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…d105backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…2dbcbacked Yes | 24c | 999.98$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…f38bbacked Yes | 25c | 933.64$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 5c | 920.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…f390backed Yes | 5c | 915.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4196…f997backed Yes | 5c | 910.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1d…8778backed Yes | 2c | 890.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a5…98d0backed Yes | 43c | 880.55$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 15c | 845.22$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.52 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +11.3wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7e…5ba1backed No | 75c | 820$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…c304backed Yes | 1c | 783.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5205…829bbacked Yes | 2c | 783.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048d…fa50backed No | 77c | 773.15$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…909ebacked Yes | 4c | 713.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e23…ba24backed Yes | 3c | 687.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 24c | 670.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.17 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 31c | 642.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…fbc7backed No | 29c | 551.52$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…fe12backed Yes | 27c | 547.57$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 2c | 510.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8491…f31fbacked No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148b…02abbacked Yes | 26c | 485.95$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 15c | 448.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…01bdbacked No | 73c | 409$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked Yes | 75c | 397.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…3bedbacked Yes | 34c | 375.01$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…77d6backed Yes | 27c | 370$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 74c | 356$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 72c | 352$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +158%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…9508backed Yes | 4c | 324.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed No | 79c | 315.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +8.1wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…7444backed Yes | 20c | 314.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…5897backed Yes | 16c | 304.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…d6e0backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked Yes | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 75c | 297.62$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed Yes | 5c | 282.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed No | 80c | 250.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3adf…d8b0backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64d…58d2backed No | 58c | 245.84$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…a7bebacked Yes | 24c | 227.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…968dbacked Yes | 67c | 224.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c7…780ebacked Yes | 33c | 220$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…8715backed Yes | 5c | 210.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 208.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 208$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 25c | 192.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3895…ceedbacked No | 58c | 172.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 80c | 159.27$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.74 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 8c | 153$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d29…414dbacked No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…dddebacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…256ebacked No | 68c | 149.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…ee94backed Yes | 14c | 141.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…8647backed No | 72c | 138.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…2486backed No | 76c | 133.34$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? this page
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31?Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? No won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 20? No won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.