Token Launches · resolved market
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63570f0c846b340c8c3c879ef0fbfd9261c59eff94c5ff1ae8d39941b79ceafb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,023,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,285,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,023,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,598 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x839c…dcc6backed Yes | 55c | 146,158$79,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,959.09 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes | 17c | 143,756$25,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,141.95 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked No | 29c | 137,941$39,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98,526.85 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 74c | 113,073$84,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,048.62 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf328…219cbacked No | 19c | 105,412$19,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85,878.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +242.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…aeb8backed Yes | 62c | 103,448$64,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,195.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 53c | 96,987$51,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,784.04 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 95,514$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.22 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…2538backed No | 79c | 94,226$74,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,837.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…59e0backed Yes | 68c | 82,930$56,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,342.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4377…cd61backed Yes | 26c | 80,184$20,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,558.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…8420backed Yes | 16c | 80,000$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,999.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…cd65backed No | 63c | 79,910$50,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,903.51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 56c | 78,662$43,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,846.05 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes | 25c | 77,047$19,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,120.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc68c…f959backed Yes | 62c | 74,715$46,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,337.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc9…59b7backed No | 37c | 73,771$26,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,822.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 2c | 72,150$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.01 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes | 14c | 70,151$9,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,784.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…c59cbacked Yes | 29c | 66,872$19,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,408.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…a115backed No | 38c | 66,705$25,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,234.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…e85cbacked Yes | 43c | 65,620$28,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,373.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34f…b81abacked Yes | 32c | 63,046$19,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,943.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 14c | 62,084$8,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,512.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…47d1backed Yes | 6c | 60,779$3,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,381.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 3c | 59,776$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a34…5636backed Yes | 48c | 59,206$28,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,148.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…180ebacked No | 67c | 57,117$38,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,109.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked No | 70c | 56,708$39,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,957.24 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa758…0c98backed Yes | 58c | 54,316$31,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,279.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…1d0abacked Yes | 0c | 53,988$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…9f1bbacked Yes | 64c | 53,385$34,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,346.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 4c | 52,382$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 67c | 51,811$34,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,042.52 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…7fe9backed No | 31c | 51,674$16,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,553.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…f38ebacked No | 71c | 50,245$35,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,632.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +220.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 8c | 49,605$3,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,801.18 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…2657backed No | 49c | 49,158$23,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,314.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 70c | 45,949$32,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,028.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1490…9cb2backed Yes | 31c | 45,767$13,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,980.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe735…5090backed No | 76c | 45,541$34,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,838.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…981dbacked No | 31c | 45,411$14,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,224.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a8…fd32backed No | 57c | 43,752$24,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,803.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…37d9backed Yes | 57c | 41,624$23,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,607.56 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd3…0570backed No | 50c | 41,531$20,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,765.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 39c | 41,073$16,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,938.78 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f50…63bebacked Yes | 25c | 40,934$10,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,233.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b2febacked No | 42c | 40,246$16,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,459.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…7537backed Yes | 25c | 39,797$9,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,995.99 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…3411backed No | 37c | 38,119$14,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,955.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437e…3013backed Yes | 5c | 36,470$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…9961backed Yes | 2c | 36,275$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafd…c1c5backed Yes | 3c | 35,521$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d20…8d60backed Yes | 70c | 35,383$24,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,762.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c2…afcbbacked No | 38c | 35,372$13,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,857.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked Yes | 44c | 35,308$15,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,483.5 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…d6c9backed No | 72c | 34,867$24,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,890.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 37c | 34,323$12,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,766.44 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Yes | 36c | 34,047$12,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,245.12 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…9c1cbacked Yes | 0c | 33,966$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 75c | 33,120$24,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,173.91 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…d692backed No | 44c | 32,935$14,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,385.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 60c | 32,052$19,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,795.38 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b3…4569backed Yes | 37c | 31,890$11,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,787.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a7…1aeabacked Yes | 5c | 31,517$1,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,731.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5990…06cbbacked No | 34c | 31,381$10,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,572.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 58c | 31,130$18,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,115.48 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2682…f523backed Yes | 66c | 30,535$20,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,292.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…58fcbacked Yes | 68c | 30,000$20,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,478.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…3d06backed Yes | 66c | 29,852$19,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,828.49 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4b…3034backed Yes | 1c | 28,727$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 26c | 27,787$7,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,290.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7816…ce35backed Yes | 23c | 27,485$6,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,325.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…5ea8backed Yes | 36c | 27,413$9,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,995.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…4d87backed Yes | 58c | 27,261$15,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,799.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87dd…003bbacked No | 19c | 26,857$5,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,773.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 72c | 26,411$18,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,895.26 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64fe…e618backed No | 32c | 26,007$8,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,676.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb646…5ac8backed Yes | 43c | 25,687$11,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,020.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…d4dabacked Yes | 28c | 25,510$7,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,248.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e12…1c24backed No | 79c | 25,207$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,207.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bb2abacked No | 60c | 24,676$14,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,898.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes | 38c | 24,503$9,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,244.79 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d2…90abbacked Yes | 4c | 24,011$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5237…f5a1backed No | 52c | 23,168$12,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,060.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e13…dd11backed Yes | 70c | 23,091$16,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,276.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.51per pick | 68cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa38…e13abacked Yes | 63c | 23,034$14,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,568.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7f…23f6backed Yes | 18c | 22,338$3,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,997.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…894cbacked No | 56c | 22,203$12,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,707.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99dd…61ccbacked No | 31c | 22,071$6,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,154.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +219.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…0330backed Yes | 73c | 22,015$16,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f77…0203backed Yes | 60c | 21,900$13,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,139.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…7c36backed Yes | 47c | 21,501$9,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,998.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…1231backed Yes | 63c | 21,195$13,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,371.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed No | 65c | 21,000$13,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,419.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7d…6a43backed Yes | 73c | 20,908$15,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,351.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes | 36c | 20,856$7,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,501.45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…114fbacked Yes | 3c | 20,769$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeaf…8ae7backed Yes | 1c | 20,352$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…327fbacked Yes | 17c | 20,325$3,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,455.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? this page
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31?Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? No won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 20? No won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.