TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x36a7…1aea

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 52 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT323.1%1 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-95.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$88
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.35
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$114
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.99
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.56
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$224
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.34
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.63
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.06
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.82
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$288.95
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$314
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.34
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-43.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$213.24
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$240.34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.95
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,026Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,026.39
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.5
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$57.5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$442Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$442.15
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$24.05
Will Iran strike Syria in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+50.2%+$34.16
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.43
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.11
Will Iran strike Jordan in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+44.9%+$31
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$946Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+48%+$454
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$18.48
All 15 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$975Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+42.9%+$417.95
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+54.2%+$105.5
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+25%+$20
Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,397Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+28.9%+$693.75
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$23.75
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$57
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,732Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,731.99
Over 150,000 bidders in the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$29.51
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.1
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$46
All 10 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked VCU Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.93
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogsbacked Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$393Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+150%+$589.92
Dayton Flyers vs. UNCW Seahawksbacked UNCW Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.58
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked TCU Horned Frogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.97
All 4 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$144
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 16, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during announcement today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+55%+$14.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Megaquake by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$20.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.