TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,077,937
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,155,537

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,077,937 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,509 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes54c281,936$152,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128,978.4363835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5113…e446backed No48c163,163$78,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,776.640%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No2c150,628$2,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,482.09333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-50.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes56c116,970$65,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,156.57248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-80.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…3291backed No60c83,868$50,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,498.251553.3%8 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick71cpaid-29.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes51c81,081$41,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,476.8658126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes63c71,343$44,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,395.3735123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked No49c62,493$30,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,572.951963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes54c60,990$32,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,078.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed No50c41,414$20,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,872.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeba7…85b9backed No37c40,895$14,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,979.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Yes61c38,468$23,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,047.451662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes52c38,161$19,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,308.8911554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2a08…9513backed Yes53c37,519$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,518.86837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd5…cf04backed Yes59c37,295$21,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,303.481233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b29…d732backed No58c34,947$20,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,273.51450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes55c32,646$17,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,751.2118425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc29…7774backed No49c29,399$14,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,393.12955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x825a…8835backed Yes57c26,193$14,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,258.96988.9%8 W · 1 L+4.5wins+0.50per pick39cpaid+141.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8eab…7badbacked Yes47c25,505$12,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,493.96633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3713…f934backed Yes33c24,950$8,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,687.132100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+251%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56d8…a862backed No52c24,894$12,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,868.83862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e7…b491backed Yes59c24,256$14,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,923.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb4…c292backed No24c24,239$5,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,816.17520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-70.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b16…a4fcbacked No55c22,976$12,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,564.251957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed No58c21,773$12,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,575.231866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes56c21,642$12,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,582.1125824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3be6…90f3backed No54c20,077$10,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,873.15475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+62.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed Yes51c20,000$10,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,9002941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87d6…95e6backed Yes47c20,000$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,600580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cce…cc4fbacked No45c19,566$8,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,784.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b78…4d2fbacked No49c19,473$9,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,618.931625%4 W · 12 L-5.9wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-62.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed Yes57c19,052$10,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,222.9822216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No47c18,028$8,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,397.781361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+41.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfbf…1e6cbacked Yes44c17,707$7,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,862.89540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes64c17,660$11,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,358.894934.7%17 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes48c16,839$8,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,697.18944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc246…9de5backed No35c16,757$5,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,82510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked No40c16,415$6,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,589.95240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5682…97afbacked Yes76c15,679$11,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,762.871145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2097…8b03backed Yes40c15,439$6,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,244.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+149.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a1…1149backed Yes53c15,000$7,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,049.99450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a6…9574backed Yes51c13,756$7,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,740.26728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No1c13,574$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.743724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25a7…2f87backed No31c13,260$4,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,094.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No52c13,125$6,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,877.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes46c12,190$5,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,591.973925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-49.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No57c11,612$6,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,618.797163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d71…410ebacked No0c11,060$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb52…92eebacked Yes39c10,950$4,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,725.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No33c10,464$3,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,48010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3928…15e4backed Yes60c10,232$6,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,115.816100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes62c10,111$6,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,838.8512824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf371…9812backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8d…2a69backed Yes52c9,645$5,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,644.196100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+81.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed Yes55c9,605$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,305.043759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed Yes79c9,258$7,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,973.616761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes62c8,860$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,360.18580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+35.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6ac…c69bbacked Yes50c8,540$4,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,270.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4c2…29ebbacked No41c8,000$3,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,31010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0513…6ee8backed Yes56c7,956$4,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,521.141338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b9…3d59backed Yes54c7,946$4,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,646.3475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No1c7,777$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x606d…1aafbacked No49c7,750$3,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,780.781478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08cc…fb2abacked Yes48c7,558$3,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,900.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa117…a311backed Yes50c7,500$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,750333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf587…de7fbacked Yes61c7,371$4,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,844.02560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf200…cf95backed Yes54c7,346$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,346.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No56c7,259$4,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,067.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No60c7,192$4,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,306.895869%40 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0710…0633backed Yes55c7,002$3,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,134.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5bb…a429backed No52c7,000$3,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6504151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a1…0ee9backed Yes43c6,904$2,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,922.474100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+77.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6453…5553backed No43c6,809$2,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,934.2850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0140…9510backed Yes51c6,528$3,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,169.93850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83dd…fe0fbacked No51c6,489$3,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,283.68450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed No44c6,365$2,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,801.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes77c6,336$4,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.291533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No34c6,115$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,071.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed Yes52c6,076$3,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,895.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-52.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c01…67f8backed Yes49c6,045$2,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,112.281250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Yes52c5,639$2,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,698.45933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…2e23backed Yes46c5,628$2,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,018.671435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-38.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3e1…fab0backed No3c5,608$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6343…bf0abacked Yes49c5,587$2,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,830.69771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7379…79f0backed No38c5,419$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab81…5ecdbacked Yes45c5,303$2,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,940.981464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6f…25f8backed Yes51c5,251$2,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,566.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Yes26c5,156$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,826.38850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+38.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed Yes65c5,124$3,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.613923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes54c5,089$2,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,320.3812259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf13…0a9abacked No47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00012025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fd0…1baebacked No25c4,888$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a9…1f13backed No16c4,886$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e1e…a7afbacked Yes49c4,800$2,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,467.884143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed32…20d6backed No43c4,734$2,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Yes43c4,680$2,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,674.143537.1%13 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5714…119dbacked Yes64c4,578$2,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.381553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaec6…33f2backed Yes54c4,500$2,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0701100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.