Weather · resolved market
Megaquake by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1873b08bfae016f830af95e2f04c4f5ce86e2e7e5a8711c2bb0f312b00fa3478
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $213,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $236,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bf4…7a02backed Yes | 1c | 21,994$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823c…5046backed Yes | 3c | 15,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e6…95c4backed Yes | 8c | 9,743$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…73acbacked Yes | 9c | 8,749$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…a292backed Yes | 8c | 7,628$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,602$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc825…361fbacked Yes | 10c | 6,392$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 79c | 5,728$4,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3559…4d76backed Yes | 7c | 5,590$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 4,283$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.95 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…2841backed Yes | 7c | 4,257$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…5df5backed Yes | 10c | 3,504$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…e737backed Yes | 24c | 3,000$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 7c | 2,512$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.95 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 21c | 2,200$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…a248backed Yes | 13c | 1,990$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…9bfdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,963$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 22c | 1,945$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…c0f1backed Yes | 10c | 1,939$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 23c | 1,707$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.83 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 1,683$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.88 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,357$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes | 8c | 1,318$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +259.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2558…0e7dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,304$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f8…43a1backed Yes | 8c | 1,204$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…3972backed Yes | 7c | 1,149$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +204.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…bb62backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7f…0cadbacked Yes | 8c | 979.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 22c | 961.78$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.59 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x592b…c038backed Yes | 2c | 932.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 9c | 903$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…5c8fbacked Yes | 18c | 855$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 846.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 822.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…60cabacked Yes | 2c | 757.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 2c | 693.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 668.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.13 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 16c | 666.26$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +222.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1347…a287backed Yes | 6c | 601$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 78c | 600$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ea…c2adbacked Yes | 18c | 551.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 5c | 550.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +443.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 11c | 517.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 25c | 498.46$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…6f23backed Yes | 21c | 475.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…c139backed Yes | 15c | 472.62$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd7…2379backed Yes | 9c | 459.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 433.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8892…c9eebacked Yes | 11c | 411.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…99e9backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8879…b47dbacked Yes | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…133bbacked Yes | 11c | 399.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 78c | 399.66$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.31 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Yes | 12c | 393.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 26c | 385.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0e…6abdbacked Yes | 9c | 380$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 5c | 370.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed Yes | 21c | 357.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 347.41$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x856c…727dbacked Yes | 9c | 314.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed Yes | 9c | 306.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 6c | 306.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…32ccbacked Yes | 24c | 304.92$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 73c | 298.03$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2d…b41abacked Yes | 34c | 295.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 290.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…9612backed Yes | 18c | 286.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 22c | 270$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc535…6047backed Yes | 8c | 238.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…2527backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c15…21b3backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 25c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 23c | 184$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb53…0412backed Yes | 6c | 172.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed No | 77c | 170$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7caf…19d2backed Yes | 24c | 162.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 80c | 158.31$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8924…c8d2backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005a…9318backed No | 80c | 151$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…c331backed Yes | 22c | 145.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…5d26backed Yes | 18c | 114.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…62e7backed Yes | 11c | 104.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1268…834bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1000…b7b4backed No | 75c | 98.02$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a7…1aeabacked No | 79c | 96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e4…7c86backed Yes | 14c | 90.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…c5aebacked Yes | 23c | 87.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 25c | 84.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…fbfabacked Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d9…8483backed No | 78c | 64.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.