TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$831,526
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$663,994

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $831,526 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 857 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77ef…9f6abacked Yes0c29,997$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97cd…11cabacked Yes20c20,264$4,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,011.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dfe…0a5ebacked No57c20,149$11,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,686.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d80…f0d9backed Yes15c18,670$2,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,713.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62ea…b955backed Yes29c16,455$4,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,771.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes2c16,325$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.72811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c16,024$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.561491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes34c12,891$4,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,394.052638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e76…3750backed Yes19c12,509$2,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,376.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2180…a93dbacked Yes19c12,193$2,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,316.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59db…c353backed Yes16c11,378$1,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,817.93560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c11,200$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.846291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a7c…eca0backed Yes53c11,055$5,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,814.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c5d…2e5ebacked Yes13c11,004$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c9,440$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.562560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc9…c26cbacked Yes25c7,751$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb110…f864backed No76c7,710$5,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No71c6,810$4,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.728543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe56c…fcecbacked Yes20c6,428$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5669…0f13backed Yes7c6,367$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.372626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Yes0c6,005$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Yes39c5,800$2,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,287.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb749…2a64backed Yes29c5,788$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,659.58650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3680…a456backed Yes7c5,738$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c5,244$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6314421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd13…e07dbacked Yes52c5,232$2,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,745.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4377…1764backed Yes1c5,001$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…a359backed Yes38c4,838$1,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,838.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ccc…585fbacked Yes39c4,738$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No15c4,715$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,002.177540%30 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes1c4,712$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbafb…2468backed Yes2c4,526$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c4,488$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.61,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1076…4f8bbacked Yes61c4,259$2,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,597.720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…2beabacked No41c4,074$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,404.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7417…0e5abacked Yes18c4,065$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.6430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe01b…ba2abacked Yes32c4,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes42c3,943$1,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.5518323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55b1…f56bbacked No58c3,840$2,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80c2…149dbacked Yes7c3,784$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x546f…4599backed Yes25c3,432$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd378…3804backed Yes1c3,260$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Yes12c3,246$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes13c3,200$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.0411549.6%57 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcea9…bdc1backed No64c3,043$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No62c2,963$1,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.4715452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd2f…7e70backed Yes40c2,835$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.72728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-49.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes1c2,718$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.032626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-55.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb855…6749backed Yes19c2,700$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b62…7418backed Yes38c2,627$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.6840%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69c9…3b29backed Yes9c2,583$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No77c2,513$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.694020%8 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab49…34e6backed Yes1c2,430$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes34c2,282$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7674918.4%9 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd506…4a8dbacked Yes7c2,259$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c6…0547backed Yes18c2,252$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes17c2,233$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.47425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-64.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked No54c2,128$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.0819040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x20bd…1446backed Yes24c2,123$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No71c2,059$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.489632.3%31 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No62c1,998$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.2511720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ebd…e0cabacked Yes14c1,961$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes30c1,900$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5643540%14 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed No41c1,894$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.981233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c1,885$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.28942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed Yes37c1,819$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.111258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No67c1,800$1,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5946462.5%40 W · 24 L+0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f78…f3a0backed Yes30c1,713$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.81650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes11c1,696$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.9321035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6496…09d0backed Yes16c1,681$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa09f…a5adbacked Yes22c1,678$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.21825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-52.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x277e…7d32backed Yes42c1,600$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.84742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c1,566$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.753042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe64d…73bebacked Yes40c1,564$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b08…2bdebacked Yes33c1,527$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6141…eadabacked No42c1,516$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes24c1,482$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.57358.6%3 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-81%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes15c1,459$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.31450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7226…834abacked Yes18c1,427$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fc…42a0backed Yes27c1,412$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.71911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes1c1,410$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdad…e9ebbacked Yes25c1,406$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes2c1,383$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.07326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No55c1,369$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.068650%43 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3537…56eabacked No75c1,369$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.52540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick71cpaid-44.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fe6…7e61backed Yes22c1,367$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked No60c1,353$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.08425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc4…99adbacked No74c1,352$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-54.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dba…f874backed Yes37c1,350$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa243…6080backed Yes32c1,333$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81dc…760abacked Yes75c1,331$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a6…db37backed Yes33c1,316$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b11…38e8backed Yes27c1,315$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.061656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked Yes79c1,271$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.89728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5939…7560backed Yes1c1,258$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,240$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.044157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2606…aaddbacked Yes48c1,200$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7b5…fa78backed Yes40c1,200$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ee…ec07backed Yes1c1,113$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes30c1,100$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.992937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.