TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$444,455
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$220,280

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $444,455 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c40,903$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.911491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c24,500$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c20,310$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.672560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbafb…2468backed Yes1c17,799$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d7…f73abacked Yes1c15,267$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.88150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c10,668$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.67490%0 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9892…fd59backed Yes0c9,974$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-45.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes1c8,088$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.25244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-94.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8784…0a9bbacked Yes0c6,987$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes3c5,121$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.3836%5 W · 78 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd378…3804backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7b5…fa78backed Yes0c4,258$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,211$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.791,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda6b…a403backed Yes0c4,127$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe2b…51debacked Yes0c4,044$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e76…73b6backed Yes1c4,008$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes9c3,891$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.052674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c3,799$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.911754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes1c3,678$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.391136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd28a…fc48backed Yes1c3,641$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb962…33d8backed Yes8c3,507$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d7d…928abacked Yes9c3,159$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.5714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+145.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d38…382cbacked Yes1c3,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.061844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x462e…2fcebacked Yes5c2,991$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c2,929$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.462522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes5c2,868$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.24358.6%3 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-81%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes1c2,683$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2290%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes6c2,343$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5118323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc77…5a6bbacked Yes1c2,252$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c2,228$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.862792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4e…0876backed Yes1c1,900$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed Yes1c1,840$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.422347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-20.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes4c1,733$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.742910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5977…0ecdbacked Yes5c1,630$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa24f…3c46backed Yes10c1,500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,494$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.091867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb146…c098backed Yes1c1,473$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.04728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c1,452$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.993042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5da7…ad2fbacked Yes19c1,318$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41d…8fe1backed Yes14c1,260$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.46520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x309e…cd72backed Yes9c1,145$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a50…a045backed Yes21c1,129$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbfd…57bcbacked Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8639…fb86backed Yes8c1,096$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.78224.5%1 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick19cpaid-92.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b75…0513backed Yes7c1,085$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74f1…0c7fbacked Yes9c999.98$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fc…42a0backed Yes2c955.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d28…a73cbacked Yes10c951.88$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91a7…31dfbacked Yes2c943.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes5c877.42$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.492977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x393d…e4f5backed Yes6c853.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe5b…85e1backed Yes12c828.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No70c823.7$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.045843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dba…219bbacked Yes4c802$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd163…d100backed Yes6c791.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef9…5840backed Yes7c762.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c754.09$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.372560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66b4…d486backed Yes16c748.11$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd23…e4d9backed Yes30c663.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f6a…5f13backed Yes32c662.73$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes15c621.67$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1620418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x092f…252ebacked Yes14c617.76$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No79c593.35$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.379850%49 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cf8…e3a2backed Yes17c574.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes11c571.22$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7718311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d1d…bd7bbacked Yes19c535.11$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d14…3481backed Yes9c444.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes15c433.33$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes8c413.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.91724.2%3 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes5c411.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.472030%6 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-56.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes3c359.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.92865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb56d…d20bbacked Yes4c359.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.131850%9 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c352.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.772110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes5c337.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.325738.6%22 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes6c313.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes13c301.68$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.19933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fc…714ebacked Yes15c300.67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes8c300$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25870%0 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ea…b38bbacked Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x382e…043cbacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3a…c965backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8029…cac3backed Yes8c253.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes8c239.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.21521.9%1 W · 51 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-80.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x48cb…e192backed Yes13c230$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf261…a709backed Yes11c227.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes16c223.28$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9825122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98a6…3055backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x232c…9f1abacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef90…1bfbbacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd226…9f66backed Yes14c222.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…4510backed Yes15c208.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.25933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-49.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc519…41e7backed Yes14c200$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a9c…19eabacked Yes6c194.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-49.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6659…c080backed Yes15c186.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x638e…2a7dbacked Yes14c184$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1640%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x87df…a242backed Yes11c180.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x369f…9243backed Yes8c178.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c0…7e68backed Yes14c176.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4803…a556backed Yes11c172.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.