TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$566,765
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$707,142

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $566,765 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 397 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2dfe…0a5ebacked Yes54c52,731$28,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,405.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f13…be56backed Yes56c20,928$11,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,110.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d7…f73abacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No2c7,485$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.18811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No1c7,400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.636291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No2c6,255$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.71634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0774…da5dbacked No2c6,195$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.36166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No19c5,542$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.43358.6%3 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-81%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a7c…eca0backed Yes60c4,760$2,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,883.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b54…2adabacked Yes61c4,735$2,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,853.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked Yes79c4,291$3,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.441833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes71c3,649$2,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.41425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-64.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked No1c3,466$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.462123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+164.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7417…0e5abacked No49c3,192$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,576.9830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No3c3,183$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.631491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c3,165$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.281,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c3,162$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.172560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaae…907ebacked No3c3,160$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa3b…f4a7backed No1c2,453$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb904…4a07backed Yes61c2,448$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes54c2,410$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.2319040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes58c2,398$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.810338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No3c2,294$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.93042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2474…57c7backed No7c2,202$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No2c1,952$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.592792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a26…e1e5backed No43c1,879$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a81…4682backed Yes48c1,823$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes62c1,800$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.26462.5%40 W · 24 L+0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes69c1,797$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.317146.5%33 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No24c1,711$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.015221.2%11 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes60c1,693$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.894020%8 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No41c1,553$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.4947938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97cd…11cabacked No26c1,531$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No10c1,503$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.8317824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes80c1,490$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.138543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a80…cfdcbacked Yes67c1,441$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b02…7fbdbacked Yes71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a2…e7bfbacked No4c1,379$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No33c1,301$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.4715452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x599f…4ce3backed Yes68c1,300$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9926…5d2cbacked Yes77c1,290$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.24520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe64d…73bebacked Yes74c1,287$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.64425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7609…6c4ebacked Yes62c1,286$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.38955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked No2c1,258$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.27210%0 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No3c1,252$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.39731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No3c1,246$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.25790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No17c1,233$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.776448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2826…f448backed Yes65c1,223$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.151266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x822e…5febbacked Yes53c1,220$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.25650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8907…a996backed Yes61c1,200$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.89366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd2f…7e70backed Yes77c1,197$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.71728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-49.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba0d…dd6bbacked Yes63c1,176$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No39c1,129$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.438741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8daf…ef60backed Yes68c1,085$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.821656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes46c1,075$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.3921035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked No2c1,054$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.27330%0 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8a…7d5ebacked Yes71c1,014$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No47c1,013$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.1429430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No30c995.38$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.5211720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes66c993.43$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.7357426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb02b…e17dbacked Yes70c969.48$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed Yes52c961.53$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.531323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x002c…8c0bbacked Yes74c946.84$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No32c888.59$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.928942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd58c…8954backed Yes63c868.38$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.582045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04e9…3dcfbacked No46c860.47$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No15c834.1$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.112977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3b…416abacked No6c799.95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10df…04a9backed Yes73c749.99$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe176…7f65backed Yes70c715.49$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No42c701.4$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.735848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c693.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.412560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes76c692.93$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.971560%9 W · 6 L+4.8wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+180.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed No1c684.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.03420%0 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d80…f0d9backed No52c679$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed Yes68c678.83$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.851553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd4d…fc11backed No37c666$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No5c616.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.41590%0 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd950…c09fbacked Yes45c599.99$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85c…ed6bbacked No2c590.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.87230%0 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No13c580$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.51546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed Yes61c578.57$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.283429.4%10 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00c8…a75fbacked Yes48c542.69$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.822860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb2ca…5fb0backed No38c528.19$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.53046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Yes57c511.4$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.433100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x777e…0050backed No41c510.2$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes79c507.34$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.361752.9%9 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No36c497.9$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.291388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No32c491.07$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.8225632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2e55…07acbacked Yes61c490.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.871225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…2c83backed Yes72c487.13$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc901…0c1dbacked No7c467.53$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.533844.7%17 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96b2…abf1backed Yes60c451.47$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11f9…dbafbacked Yes45c442.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec8…9f6abacked No5c407.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1524827.1%13 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x683a…3b03backed Yes63c396.33$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce70…0be2backed No38c378.54$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e0…07d3backed Yes64c358.18$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd4…a23fbacked Yes67c357.94$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.