TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$956,875
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$774,932

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $956,875 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 453 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41b9…5c5cbacked Yes23c76,700$17,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,794.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No66c35,070$23,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,867.51926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c30,972$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.78811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c22,004$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.541491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaded…2fe3backed Yes34c21,220$7,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,120.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc88d…5ae4backed No77c20,900$16,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,848.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…0901backed No77c20,400$15,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,732.8366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c19,968$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.922560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8d…1c19backed No77c19,900$15,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,616.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0c…f852backed No77c15,500$11,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes0c13,667$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.53210%0 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x286e…f192backed Yes25c13,050$3,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,249.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc484…8b5dbacked Yes1c12,486$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+24.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes34c12,395$4,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,234.74825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes0c10,454$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.91190%0 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb794…3befbacked Yes26c10,350$2,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,678.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf779…f699backed Yes29c9,730$2,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,853.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6408…d9dbbacked Yes25c9,600$2,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,380.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf8…e3a2backed Yes5c7,584$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes34c7,501$2,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,527922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-50.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No71c7,452$5,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,150.01616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-76.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa715…5b32backed Yes1c7,005$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcff4…9a75backed Yes0c6,720$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes6c6,395$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.94244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-94.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da0…5fe0backed Yes2c5,796$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c4,496$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.61,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05db…3130backed Yes10c4,274$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No69c3,992$2,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.228543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ccc…585fbacked Yes15c3,981$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf039…3818backed No75c3,950$2,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f56…4647backed No75c3,800$2,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a6…7159backed Yes1c3,724$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a0…a1c2backed No75c3,700$2,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes16c3,672$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.8818323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4af…ddcabacked Yes3c3,630$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb4d…55edbacked No71c3,600$2,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4e…0876backed Yes0c3,573$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9345…c5e6backed No74c3,530$2,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3352…46d2backed No75c3,500$2,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9507…7b04backed No77c3,467$2,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.761145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2a…a719backed No71c3,200$2,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed No70c3,100$2,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.88475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x989b…14c3backed Yes3c3,011$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9f4…cf83backed No75c3,000$2,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc9…553abacked No74c2,998$2,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c2,940$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.872674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090c…9bb8backed No71c2,930$2,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fc…f18abacked No75c2,900$2,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd62b…28adbacked No75c2,850$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd0…3cfbbacked Yes3c2,804$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ba…e89abacked Yes22c2,784$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd7…834cbacked No75c2,750$2,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce4…2abbbacked Yes3c2,646$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a3…a972backed Yes2c2,641$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes20c2,602$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.722977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb84…9f89backed Yes3c2,561$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe5b…85e1backed Yes4c2,557$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f85…b41fbacked Yes1c2,505$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d3d…c0fdbacked Yes7c2,495$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes3c2,436$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.29836%5 W · 78 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c21…adafbacked Yes1c2,435$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd64d…8bc9backed Yes3c2,425$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7d2…3ce6backed Yes3c2,376$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes2c2,370$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-77.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x478b…ae56backed Yes3c2,344$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes2c2,329$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes7c2,313$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.39358.6%3 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-81%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe704…6c0dbacked Yes2c2,258$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes10c2,203$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.52560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0282…9bd2backed Yes7c2,114$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1741…11d9backed Yes3c2,092$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe2b…51debacked Yes1c2,022$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No65c2,013$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.982821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-59.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked Yes28c2,000$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5544161%25 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5462…358fbacked Yes30c1,999$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c1,964$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.421754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01fc…0b96backed Yes2c1,942$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No71c1,893$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.151428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d4b…886ebacked Yes1c1,890$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c1,862$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.592792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c1,760$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.292522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…1338backed No70c1,720$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04ac…c7b0backed Yes29c1,700$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes19c1,696$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.932110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfb5…6514backed Yes3c1,686$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa2…0379backed Yes30c1,661$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a7…db79backed Yes3c1,661$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0979…edafbacked Yes35c1,653$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x533e…1dc4backed Yes3c1,645$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9920…52c7backed Yes5c1,636$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aae…5717backed Yes30c1,626$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2a…5d4abacked Yes21c1,609$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.57520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-74.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9acd…40ffbacked Yes2c1,598$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e7…bb8cbacked Yes39c1,589$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d5a…beeebacked Yes3c1,574$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfe2…0a1dbacked Yes3c1,538$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a75…5271backed No70c1,500$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4471040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes24c1,499$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.051435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+57.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59db…c353backed No76c1,433$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.01560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x602d…b4c7backed Yes2c1,407$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.