TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Starmer out by June 26, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$426,341
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$438,888

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $426,341 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 360 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes74c15,464$11,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,011.636150.8%31 W · 30 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x535c…96babacked No56c11,383$6,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,349.04425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc91b…93bdbacked No14c9,261$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.291118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-76.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No15c8,807$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.4611039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf6…cc47backed Yes80c7,666$6,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcca9…4c9fbacked No14c6,875$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9661723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-64.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No20c6,209$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.35728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes47c5,916$2,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,132.775335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb0e…e64bbacked No18c5,264$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed Yes74c5,216$3,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.628451.2%43 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c5,100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.44440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x652b…f5c2backed No16c5,040$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No14c4,976$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.1217330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No17c4,513$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.74120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes40c4,445$1,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6674940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb22…710abacked No10c4,277$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No9c4,204$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3681822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3ec…6603backed Yes54c4,171$2,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,913.881172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+56.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed No15c3,928$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed No23c3,926$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.242030%6 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed No21c3,836$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.183040%12 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No6c3,826$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.1452850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No30c3,517$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.455121.6%11 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x298f…1601backed No10c3,500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-58.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c3,425$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.181,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9f…a025backed Yes46c3,370$1,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.051457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+55.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes52c3,285$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.4812029.2%35 W · 85 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69cc…2e44backed No20c2,916$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b87…2e2fbacked No30c2,841$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x92b2…c8d0backed No18c2,705$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed No22c2,577$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.11020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bef…d6e2backed No20c2,501$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked No13c2,500$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8d…01debacked No18c2,328$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed No16c2,300$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3672245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes54c2,300$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.975740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No17c2,054$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.214526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b3…bad4backed No58c2,000$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.22757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+49.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Yes39c1,913$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.892748.1%13 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x80f1…3ccdbacked Yes48c1,883$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad12…a803backed No19c1,855$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.28771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+44.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd44f…41a1backed No11c1,818$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe4e…d0c6backed No11c1,818$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b0e…0b82backed No16c1,750$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.51346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes56c1,729$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.91030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked No57c1,710$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.58333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+233.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c5…e133backed Yes50c1,700$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes69c1,594$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.25580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa429…368abacked No57c1,556$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-58.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed No15c1,556$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.411030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes39c1,552$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.8126139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Yes39c1,529$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.69475%3 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick22cpaid+342%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x174b…5a55backed No38c1,499$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.1330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf81c…4540backed No17c1,483$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5af…8a00backed Yes74c1,348$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes48c1,323$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.393551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0947…a830backed No20c1,259$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac42…60d1backed No13c1,209$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26a5…06c0backed No27c1,200$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-50.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked No16c1,182$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.161233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked No2c1,167$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51b1…7865backed No29c1,129$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.951020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb98…6d3cbacked No9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7168…e537backed No19c1,058$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f4…7763backed No17c1,044$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No21c1,030$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.84032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1305332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed No59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5901145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f9…781bbacked No11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-83.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13ac…2c1abacked No48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed No14c1,000$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.09812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe56b…2c03backed No10c1,000$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5801931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x933f…d300backed No15c999.97$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked No10c989.84$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked No12c988.07$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.64616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+138.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9063…77b1backed No25c979.79$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.0130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b71…0a0dbacked No52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No11c942.48$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1074231%13 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc0f…c1e6backed No13c935.7$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39fa…468dbacked No16c934.49$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.35812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-77%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0a3…962fbacked No15c933.33$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403740.5%15 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes79c917.56$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.6624637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed No48c900$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4321145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No31c900$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2822937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb98e…eceebacked No11c884.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb78d…835dbacked No13c883.32$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.51233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+102.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdef1…a823backed No13c862.26$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc83…bcd2backed No10c862.1$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d37…6887backed No14c857.14$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed No29c847.63$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2453633.3%12 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fc8…d0dbbacked No49c843.26$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.57825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-36.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c38…e679backed No15c827.22$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes69c800$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2485244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes55c799.5$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.0388448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf59…deb0backed No10c780$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.93837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f33…914ebacked Yes40c769.81$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.89955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked Yes53c764.32$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.23771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05df…882dbacked No14c721.56$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.02540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No46c700$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3222638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.