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World Politics · resolved market

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,409,955
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,421,750

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,409,955 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd519…932cbacked Yes3c100,000$2,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,683.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes8c38,572$3,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,098.0413918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed Yes9c37,886$3,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,478.513444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5297…7b99backed Yes2c32,354$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.48540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed Yes1c20,510$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.5960%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes8c18,397$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.756622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b67…d4dabacked Yes5c18,319$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.0260%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes11c18,108$2,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,030.59425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes5c17,987$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.563023.3%7 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick8cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes13c15,537$1,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes7c14,623$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.092416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes8c14,500$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.998641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes5c14,491$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.211442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes12c14,255$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,694.59616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c11,950$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.85892.2%2 W · 87 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-80.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2b7…aaebbacked Yes2c11,234$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.38333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x285e…f38cbacked Yes6c10,057$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No13c10,000$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,749.264032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes5c9,843$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.255149%25 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+168.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked No12c8,653$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,610.344334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes11c8,482$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.921241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.19per pick23cpaid+54.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes3c8,452$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.68425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c8,100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.64440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb6…50fcbacked No15c7,719$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,568.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+235.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes4c7,380$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.5315932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e9…e288backed Yes14c7,190$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick43cpaid-77.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb119…8d46backed Yes9c6,951$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.44333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes6c6,625$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes4c6,140$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.313417.6%6 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid+42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes7c6,034$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.72564%16 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c5,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7517921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes54c5,405$2,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,903.932458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes6c5,318$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.231494.7%7 W · 142 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked No14c5,159$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,437.042748.1%13 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes4c5,084$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.65322.6%12 W · 41 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes9c5,000$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4252142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes11c5,000$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.64933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes2c4,286$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5333554.9%184 W · 151 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes11c4,237$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.385234.6%18 W · 34 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80cf…614dbacked Yes10c4,031$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.532035%7 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+51.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56fc…1cbebacked Yes4c3,932$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-57.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes20c3,692$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.347225%18 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x027e…c97fbacked No75c3,546$2,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.8683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick54cpaid+128.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes9c3,500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3152544%11 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes3c3,184$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.071020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-63.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63b4…7e30backed Yes10c3,146$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.821241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes2c3,130$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.234511.1%5 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58ac…d9e3backed Yes4c2,873$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.8370%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes1c2,855$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes7c2,855$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.764231%13 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb407…456fbacked Yes4c2,840$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes4c2,719$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2319315.5%30 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9807…6569backed Yes11c2,572$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.421030%3 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+71.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No12c2,393$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,111.726240.1%105 W · 157 L+16.8wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes15c2,380$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.9814834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes54c2,374$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2816150.8%31 W · 30 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes11c2,300$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.13537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…a830backed Yes2c2,239$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes7c2,231$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41d6…608bbacked Yes1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x358a…d45fbacked Yes2c2,222$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72e9…6743backed Yes7c2,203$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.07850%4 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+39.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x961a…50c7backed Yes9c2,087$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.07633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+67.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72f7…92f7backed No14c2,082$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.693941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+30.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67be…d937backed Yes6c2,000$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…af0fbacked Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed No14c2,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.993737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x946e…1225backed Yes8c1,923$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.81911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No14c1,759$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.6111039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No59c1,750$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.284355.8%24 W · 19 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c6a…419fbacked Yes12c1,730$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes9c1,693$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.615534.5%19 W · 36 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eda…92a7backed Yes1c1,600$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed No11c1,600$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.994042.5%17 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes7c1,598$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.83345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes9c1,534$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.627919%15 W · 64 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes6c1,520$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.644812.5%6 W · 42 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes13c1,488$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.082842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes9c1,433$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.77520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x207b…c5f0backed Yes8c1,400$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.71315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes8c1,397$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.633531.4%11 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e4f…4594backed Yes19c1,335$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.44616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-57%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Yes11c1,296$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.14540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x154b…8f25backed Yes12c1,284$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Yes9c1,282$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.19540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc03a…d7c4backed Yes2c1,262$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae4…d4cebacked Yes9c1,260$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.271338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+58.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed Yes3c1,209$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c4a…bdf8backed No13c1,200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No10c1,200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.9918728.3%53 W · 134 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa429…368abacked No53c1,200$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.991127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-58.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd528…ecb7backed Yes2c1,188$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74a8…04a9backed Yes2c1,150$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.05616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1104…002abacked No14c1,131$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.713135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes23c1,104$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f5…d19abacked Yes17c1,068$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes10c1,035$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.421540%6 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9408…9cb2backed Yes2c1,013$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked Yes13c1,002$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.551827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.