World Politics · resolved market
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fc7f19c45c179390eba1c6d43faed2fdcb2ff4b50e9b57655289c5a46107ef3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x121d…832abacked No | 7c | 7,200$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 2c | 5,078$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 63c | 4,936$3,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.23 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 10c | 4,635$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d41…6acabacked No | 45c | 4,366$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,945 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed No | 20c | 3,809$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.83 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 23c | 3,531$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.79 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed No | 3c | 3,521$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 79c | 3,519$2,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 2c | 3,313$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 5c | 3,081$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.63 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No | 3c | 2,914$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 52c | 2,835$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.36 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 2c | 2,649$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 8c | 2,589$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.3 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 2c | 2,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 80c | 2,441$1,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…82babacked No | 48c | 2,084$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 9c | 2,012$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked No | 2c | 2,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…eb44backed No | 13c | 1,968$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.86 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 62c | 1,852$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.94 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c0…f73abacked No | 3c | 1,780$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d19…f1dcbacked No | 8c | 1,632$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,600$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 10c | 1,555$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.71 | 140 | 27.9%39 W · 101 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 9c | 1,510$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.49 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…4f15backed No | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 10c | 1,394$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.79 | 100 | 38%38 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 20c | 1,365$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.35 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 16c | 1,314$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.71 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…ea52backed No | 13c | 1,300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,274$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…6e8bbacked No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 1,223$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a025backed Yes | 55c | 1,213$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 7c | 1,200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed No | 3c | 1,200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…c88ebacked No | 8c | 1,144$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…790cbacked No | 7c | 1,093$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed Yes | 56c | 1,031$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.42 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…8c4fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,001$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.09 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…c5f0backed No | 13c | 1,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bb…d9edbacked No | 44c | 957.73$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 5c | 854.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 71c | 800$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 65c | 735.01$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.01 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 24c | 734$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.54 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 20c | 726.18$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.81 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 5c | 704.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked No | 30c | 682$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.89 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 7c | 676.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 8c | 645$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked No | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 2c | 594.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…262dbacked Yes | 52c | 560.73$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.66 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…30c5backed No | 12c | 541.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…468dbacked No | 7c | 528.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -77%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed No | 3c | 511.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 2c | 500.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…0690backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 11c | 499.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ca…60aebacked Yes | 75c | 496.87$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…4ddfbacked No | 4c | 485.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 3c | 478.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d4…9002backed No | 47c | 455$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 80c | 445$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 56c | 438.72$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.88 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 79c | 435.75$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 78c | 430.97$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27da…d24abacked No | 3c | 404$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff3…eb39backed No | 12c | 400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 3c | 392.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 10c | 378.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 7c | 375$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 46c | 372.83$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d4…5696backed No | 9c | 357.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed No | 30c | 350$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 309.89$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.76 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 4c | 300.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 63c | 291.6$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.44 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x772e…22e7backed No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…99bfbacked No | 6c | 281.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bf…dbe7backed No | 37c | 278.64$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked No | 27c | 273$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f1…1abbbacked No | 10c | 268.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 6c | 241.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…67f3backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa547…e6f0backed No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…2e2fbacked No | 48c | 206.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…a2f4backed No | 10c | 205.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8124…938fbacked No | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?this page
- Starmer out by April 30, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by February 28, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 15, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by June 21, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 23, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 24, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 25, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by March 31, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 19, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 31, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by October 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.