TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Starmer out by August 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$191,603
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$196,424

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,603 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x121d…832abacked No7c7,200$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51650%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No2c5,078$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9860%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes63c4,936$3,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,830.236150.8%31 W · 30 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No10c4,635$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.571315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-22.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4d41…6acabacked No45c4,366$1,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9451225%3 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed No20c3,809$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.835330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No23c3,531$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.7926139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2140…5790backed No3c3,521$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes79c3,519$2,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.91030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No2c3,313$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.81120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No5c3,081$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6313225%33 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No3c2,914$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.71922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid-50.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes52c2,835$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.363551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed No2c2,649$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.651921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No8c2,589$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.31612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee25…7cd3backed No2c2,500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes80c2,441$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.21020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c54…82babacked No48c2,084$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa429…368abacked No9c2,012$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.971127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-58.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb401…df2abacked No2c2,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6c…eb44backed No13c1,968$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.863125.8%8 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-48.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes62c1,852$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.945058%29 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2c0…f73abacked No3c1,780$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+79.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d19…f1dcbacked No8c1,632$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No3c1,600$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9919315.5%30 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No10c1,555$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7114027.9%39 W · 101 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No9c1,510$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.495121.6%11 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa55f…4f15backed No10c1,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No10c1,394$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7910038%38 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No20c1,365$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.3511435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No16c1,314$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.7117330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b19…ea52backed No13c1,300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.94333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c1,274$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.251,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb9a…6e8bbacked No8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c1,223$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.162543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9f…a025backed Yes55c1,213$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5471457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+55.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked No7c1,200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc5…4626backed No3c1,200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-73.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No8c1,200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963821.1%8 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-55.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75e5…c88ebacked No8c1,144$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.36633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6053…790cbacked No7c1,093$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.08520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-65.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c1…0791backed Yes56c1,031$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.4210354.4%56 W · 47 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ba4…8c4fbacked Yes70c1,001$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.09785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.41per pick45cpaid+105.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed No12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+67.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2005740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4405335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x207b…c5f0backed No13c1,000$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x63bb…d9edbacked No44c957.73$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.81728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No5c854.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.671822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes71c800$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2325149%25 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed Yes65c735.01$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.016322.2%14 W · 49 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No24c734$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.542937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No20c726.18$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8111230.4%34 W · 78 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No5c704.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.969328%26 W · 67 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked No30c682$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.893243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed No7c676.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.92616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-74.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No8c645$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0510734.6%37 W · 70 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked No3c600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.373420.6%7 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No2c594.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.194211.9%5 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+59.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x392a…262dbacked Yes52c560.73$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.661471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda54…30c5backed No12c541.67$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fa…468dbacked No7c528.31$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.53812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-77%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac42…60d1backed No3c511.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed No2c500.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.373542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No3c500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4537.5%4 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x051f…0690backed No4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked No8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No11c499.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5728434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ca…60aebacked Yes75c496.87$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.8850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58a0…4ddfbacked No4c485.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No3c478.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.02449.1%4 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d4…9002backed No47c455$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-66.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes80c445$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.44940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes56c438.72$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.887123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes79c435.75$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.824637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes78c430.97$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.71475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27da…d24abacked No3c404$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2811839%46 W · 72 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1ff3…eb39backed No12c400$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.91936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc91b…93bdbacked No3c392.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.791118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-76.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No10c378.87$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.141827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed No7c375$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.25555.5%3 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-92.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x279c…2b82backed No46c372.83$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.98742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49d4…5696backed No9c357.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9032…b5c3backed No30c350$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No38c309.89$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7616834.5%58 W · 110 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No4c300.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.013917.9%7 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Yes63c291.6$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.442748.1%13 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x772e…22e7backed No7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac2…99bfbacked No6c281.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6bf…dbe7backed No37c278.64$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b22…74ecbacked No27c273$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.711915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-60.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6f1…1abbbacked No10c268.87$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No6c241.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5288448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x656e…67f3backed No9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa547…e6f0backed No47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b87…2e2fbacked No48c206.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3211…a2f4backed No10c205.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8124…938fbacked No45c200$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-59.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d69…ab3abacked No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-81.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.