TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Starmer out by March 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$878,483
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$874,871

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $878,483 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 334 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed Yes7c161,910$12,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,016.45100%0 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b22…c824backed Yes15c41,719$6,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,274.430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacb1…85f7backed Yes3c17,016$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes14c14,306$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,030.1213918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes12c12,464$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.95437%20 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca76…28b3backed Yes17c12,000$2,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,043.34933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes12c10,374$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.241030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes4c8,393$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.541612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97d3…b7babacked Yes16c8,346$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22bd…ad18backed Yes13c7,483$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Yes8c7,250$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.532630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7905…a886backed Yes16c7,002$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.43147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes13c6,124$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.214748.9%23 W · 24 L+6.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+74.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb4ed…9a97backed Yes10c6,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001030%3 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+55%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cf3…286bbacked Yes14c5,842$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f3…2822backed Yes4c5,406$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes15c4,839$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.9115230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes7c4,422$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.9122029.5%65 W · 155 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c4,357$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.752344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes4c4,349$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.215313.2%7 W · 46 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-80.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x81f0…71edbacked Yes14c4,175$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes2c4,045$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.989418.1%17 W · 77 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yes16c4,041$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes12c3,800$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3332…cf9dbacked Yes5c3,500$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes10c3,447$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.117919%15 W · 64 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70f1…b2ecbacked Yes21c3,333$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Yes13c3,313$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.434367.4%29 W · 14 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe2f5…5e0ebacked Yes16c3,240$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes10c3,228$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.42520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-55.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes17c2,940$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.835527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…e231backed Yes11c2,916$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.56812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c2,877$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3614.9%3 W · 58 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x335c…6e62backed Yes10c2,699$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8af8…e723backed Yes19c2,572$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes16c2,500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58b3…fe06backed Yes13c2,442$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.34742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe46…cb39backed Yes4c2,421$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.39666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes33c2,336$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.72944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ed1…53febacked Yes4c2,307$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick18cpaid-8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes10c2,197$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.172142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x843e…d2f3backed Yes21c2,131$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked No78c2,039$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.15742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001384.6%11 W · 2 L+3.9wins+0.30per pick55cpaid+49.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf566…1386backed No65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f2…34d0backed Yes5c2,000$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b2…2171backed Yes17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c1,864$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.766883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x275c…6090backed No79c1,835$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.354100%4 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c1,814$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7617921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c1,795$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.274766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes11c1,700$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19318628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x668d…97d2backed No79c1,662$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.383339.4%13 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5801…1e52backed Yes13c1,590$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3581…7427backed Yes15c1,500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe389…8a2cbacked Yes28c1,500$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes8c1,447$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.0919237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes14c1,400$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-1.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x363f…ee04backed Yes9c1,373$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8415…dfe1backed Yes13c1,344$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.27560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc56…d195backed Yes4c1,300$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7540…9827backed Yes14c1,285$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2f…1002backed Yes31c1,271$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-70.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes14c1,256$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.852626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-40.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c1,250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfce…80c7backed Yes20c1,200$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-74.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d62…27e0backed Yes15c1,200$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802040%8 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes20c1,116$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.228434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes20c1,093$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.5210122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf806…eebdbacked Yes4c1,053$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65a8…d661backed Yes23c1,030$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3008…5cb6backed Yes15c1,027$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc636…5ef9backed Yes5c1,020$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06d6…d87fbacked Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14014834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76e3…4bb2backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes14c975.21$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7837117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes18c966$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.097638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes4c925.26$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.818641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…de80backed Yes35c903.04$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.91728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes5c900$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425614.3%8 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44fc…9728backed No75c860$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x769d…05bfbacked Yes15c853$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.2290%0 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x433e…67f4backed Yes6c849.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c4…7904backed Yes6c833$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc682…17bbbacked No73c822.48$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.071145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes1c806.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4350%0 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes20c802.5$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.53721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf87b…76bbbacked Yes13c770.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x234e…240bbacked No67c748.22$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a9b…b6ecbacked Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b71…0a0dbacked No70c714.02$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd67b…bd5cbacked Yes15c700$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+312.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcff1…f8debacked Yes12c689.87$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-71.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Yes37c677.55$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-71.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes12c676.55$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.483420.6%7 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes13c673.7$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.675728.1%16 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+90.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.