World Politics · resolved market
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x515af955382b776e92128ecdbd74e538fcabf6fe1287b86eace3bccb1d5f84ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf769…0114backed No | 8c | 11,622$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.07 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed No | 2c | 8,014$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc591…f1fabacked No | 2c | 6,080$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 2c | 6,011$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.11 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No | 3c | 5,922$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 3c | 5,500$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.46 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 4c | 4,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 4c | 3,609$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.3 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…9281backed No | 16c | 3,484$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 2c | 3,264$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 15c | 2,962$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…ed51backed No | 5c | 2,900$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…e94cbacked No | 2c | 2,770$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 70c | 1,852$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.52 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,842$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 3c | 1,546$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…0690backed No | 3c | 1,500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…8eefbacked No | 5c | 1,450$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 3c | 1,399$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 9c | 1,203$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…468dbacked No | 10c | 1,144$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -77%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 6c | 1,111$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…790cbacked No | 6c | 1,045$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.67 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a78…7748backed No | 6c | 991.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 835.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27da…d24abacked No | 4c | 815.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 810.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 810$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 20c | 742.37$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.07 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 3c | 586.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No | 3c | 578.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed No | 6c | 509.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 71c | 500.14$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.06 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 3c | 480.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe811…3fcebacked Yes | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked No | 18c | 404.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf34…dc86backed No | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 21c | 362.51$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 28c | 351.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…eb44backed No | 7c | 338.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f6…5108backed No | 15c | 330.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…2a4fbacked No | 6c | 305$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 6c | 302.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe96d…a747backed Yes | 76c | 240.6$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…e3f3backed No | 8c | 239.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Yes | 80c | 228.08$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…262dbacked Yes | 74c | 221.27$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff3…eb39backed No | 8c | 219.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef08…1b3cbacked No | 7c | 218.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8124…938fbacked No | 31c | 214.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked No | 10c | 210.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…6435backed No | 8c | 210$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…84a6backed No | 25c | 194.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cf…6169backed No | 28c | 176.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f4…2a00backed No | 20c | 149.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…b601backed No | 18c | 108.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a025backed Yes | 75c | 83.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…4c5ebacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…2c0fbacked No | 31c | 70.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…625fbacked Yes | 67c | 66.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 75c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked Yes | 79c | 59.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 67c | 37.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 18.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Starmer out by October 31, 2026?this page
- Starmer out by April 30, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by February 28, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 15, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by June 21, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 23, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 24, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 25, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by March 31, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 19, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 31, 2026?No won
- Starmer out in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.