World Politics · resolved market
Starmer out by June 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b1a52f1a6d9c27014c99a8b1b6d651364d9f32b7e372193ae2decbc978edb1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9d5…d1bbbacked No | 0c | 10,200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 7c | 4,354$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…183abacked No | 3c | 3,492$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c6…ff7abacked No | 3c | 3,246$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 18c | 2,931$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.54 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked No | 7c | 2,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 4c | 2,500$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 11c | 1,686$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.33 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 7c | 1,608$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.37 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 14c | 1,538$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.79 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed No | 15c | 1,478$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.71 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 1,237$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.37 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed No | 12c | 1,019$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x121d…832abacked No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…3c00backed No | 3c | 999.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 17c | 999.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 11c | 895$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…2ea6backed No | 11c | 839.17$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed No | 26c | 815.24$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed No | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 75c | 785$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.25 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b60…a55bbacked No | 28c | 712.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed No | 16c | 687.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 26c | 616.01$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…4880backed No | 14c | 575.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…40c4backed Yes | 77c | 521.07$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked No | 16c | 507.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 73c | 499.98$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 72c | 498.71$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.7 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 15c | 484.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…e3a0backed No | 4c | 474.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 74c | 440.53$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 14c | 420.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39de…54f6backed No | 12c | 420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 9c | 410.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +205.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 10c | 334.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…deb0backed No | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 299.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9c38…e679backed No | 16c | 297.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked No | 11c | 245.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 79c | 223.81$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked No | 6c | 218.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff3…eb39backed No | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…2061backed No | 25c | 196.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5e…7e92backed No | 13c | 196.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked No | 22c | 161.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 73c | 136.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…c444backed No | 24c | 130.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…262dbacked Yes | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed No | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 10c | 111.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 100 | 38%38 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3adc…01bbbacked No | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x174b…5a55backed No | 27c | 101.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…b433backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f97…fa52backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…0459backed No | 15c | 91.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 79c | 75.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad29…d86abacked No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 75c | 67.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778b…808ebacked No | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad12…a803backed Yes | 78c | 53.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 25c | 50.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +52%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…8eefbacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 73c | 28.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Starmer out by June 23, 2026?this page
- Starmer out by April 30, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by February 28, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 15, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by June 21, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 24, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 25, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out by March 31, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 19, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by May 31, 2026?No won
- Starmer out by October 31, 2026?Yes won
- Starmer out in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.