TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc6bf…dbe7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
74
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 59 out of 100; worst NBA at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$85
France vs. Spain: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.25
France vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+100%+$13
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$4.94
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advancebacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$10
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+100%+$15
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+66.1%+$7.27
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$8.31
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$44.33
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
All 19 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+51%+$40.82
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+111.7%+$185.46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$46.18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+48.8%+$47.49
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+58.5%+$30.41
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$26.82
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+74.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$56.38
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$155
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+594.8%+$148.69
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$54.35
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$135.19
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.40per pick26cpaid+348.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.31
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.