Commodities · resolved market
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90bfaf5467d56bc60c35dbc373aabb15b0cefe5c04df56a7b16abe581750ae20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $445,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $457,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $445,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 421 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4f6…d00ebacked Yes | 0c | 43,703$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…b6e8backed Yes | 30c | 20,537$6,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,154.88 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 30c | 10,954$3,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,238.65 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 35c | 10,689$3,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,737.39 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4c…4070backed Yes | 9c | 10,403$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 8c | 9,521$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.78 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0e…434ebacked Yes | 37c | 7,593$2,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,785.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 73c | 6,600$4,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.32 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 65c | 4,862$3,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.27 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…b994backed No | 63c | 4,414$2,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.78 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 4,200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed Yes | 5c | 3,958$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 23c | 3,927$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.96 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 27c | 3,730$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed No | 68c | 3,721$2,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.69 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…affebacked Yes | 1c | 3,596$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 46c | 3,436$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,586.79 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed No | 38c | 3,151$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,954.44 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.36per pick | 45cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed No | 64c | 3,103$1,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.36 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 1c | 3,084$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 59c | 2,981$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.77 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…af7ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,847$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed No | 72c | 2,778$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 31c | 2,656$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.63 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3732…43acbacked Yes | 51c | 2,646$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Yes | 17c | 2,628$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 67c | 2,335$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.09 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 18c | 2,241$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.64 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 19c | 2,041$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.52 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 78c | 2,000$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…80c7backed No | 74c | 1,910$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 69c | 1,805$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.64 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 51c | 1,776$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a79…304fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,700$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 65c | 1,632$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.69 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…5ffdbacked No | 62c | 1,543$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.82 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…cd14backed Yes | 37c | 1,494$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.55 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb9…c1f3backed No | 53c | 1,480$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.57 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 30c | 1,451$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…74d8backed No | 71c | 1,397$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0bedbacked No | 75c | 1,315$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd584…8107backed No | 63c | 1,306$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,233$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 53c | 1,212$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.93 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8408…5dcabacked Yes | 38c | 1,184$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a78…a1e0backed Yes | 62c | 1,182$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 27c | 1,076$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.39 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 3c | 1,073$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 37c | 1,033$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.48 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 38c | 1,001$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.88 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.91 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…f499backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…17b0backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a64…e470backed No | 31c | 979.69$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…b61bbacked No | 56c | 951.56$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed Yes | 22c | 899.73$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.7 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 895.6$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.23 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 52c | 886.95$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.37 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf3…5c30backed No | 55c | 870.13$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 36c | 870.01$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.02 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 8c | 849.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 34c | 796.44$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.12 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…c499backed No | 61c | 766.91$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…5db4backed No | 45c | 730.77$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.77 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…2fddbacked No | 55c | 723.09$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 66c | 715.06$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.14 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 65c | 703.03$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…a840backed Yes | 55c | 687.15$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 51c | 679.98$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.19 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 62c | 670.87$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.05 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 654.18$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.01 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a66…8c0cbacked Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…431ebacked Yes | 4c | 622.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec8…dcc1backed Yes | 32c | 618.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 75c | 614.63$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.32 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 19c | 611.51$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.15 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 42c | 609.7$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.86 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 68c | 600.1$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.03 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked No | 67c | 600$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 46c | 585.76$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.46 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 583.55$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.58 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 14c | 571.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…bc90backed Yes | 51c | 565.74$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 18c | 558.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 557.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 65c | 544.9$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.71 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 34c | 540.09$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.63 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1a…214cbacked Yes | 27c | 527.41$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb50…257dbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…9ad1backed No | 17c | 499.21$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +276.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…feb9backed Yes | 49c | 485.57$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.49 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…2ec4backed No | 78c | 474$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…3923backed No | 37c | 470.3$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.09 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +4.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…8aefbacked No | 63c | 450$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 441.42$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?this page
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Yes won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?No won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.