Commodities · resolved market
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda1b8fb9630e1495cfd0c6fae52a9ffcbbe2701c5366c666b8ec5709f789485f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $751,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $585,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $751,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 404 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03b7…992ebacked Yes | 0c | 90,079$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…5f2abacked Yes | 0c | 66,443$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f6…d00ebacked Yes | 0c | 49,288$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 23c | 23,610$5,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,470.33 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51e4…cfbcbacked Yes | 0c | 19,340$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed Yes | 0c | 18,941$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…b6e8backed Yes | 22c | 12,748$2,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,774.56 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…17b0backed Yes | 27c | 10,897$2,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,913.05 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3298…355ebacked Yes | 67c | 10,658$7,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,103.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3732…43acbacked Yes | 48c | 9,564$4,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,593.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 3c | 9,511$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.32 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0e…434ebacked Yes | 26c | 8,500$2,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,237.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…2af5backed No | 77c | 7,650$5,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…efd6backed Yes | 20c | 6,810$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.77 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…affebacked Yes | 0c | 6,791$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…f251backed No | 76c | 6,594$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.32 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…9ad1backed No | 31c | 6,000$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,140 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +276.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed No | 41c | 5,279$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,119.64 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.36per pick | 45cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 70c | 5,222$3,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.02 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 44c | 4,598$2,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,555.09 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 19c | 4,558$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 24c | 4,494$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.02 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed No | 74c | 4,355$3,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 26c | 4,209$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.16 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…acffbacked No | 75c | 4,024$3,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 32c | 3,979$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.8 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…fe0dbacked No | 75c | 3,770$2,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 26c | 3,733$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.82 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6300backed Yes | 26c | 3,484$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 77c | 3,451$2,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.17 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 24c | 3,424$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.41 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 64c | 3,295$2,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.62 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 29c | 3,164$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.9 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed Yes | 43c | 3,000$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,815$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.55 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 75c | 2,762$2,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 43c | 2,577$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 48c | 2,500$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.38 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 25c | 2,438$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.63 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…647abacked Yes | 23c | 2,400$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 75c | 2,365$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.41 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…e58fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,251$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed Yes | 34c | 2,240$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.52 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1a…214cbacked Yes | 33c | 2,225$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf9…cffdbacked Yes | 13c | 2,216$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 25c | 2,155$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.21 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e9…f1bcbacked Yes | 30c | 2,148$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 19c | 2,030$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 74c | 2,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2764…2827backed Yes | 53c | 1,873$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,800$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 54c | 1,644$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.41 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,626$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 27c | 1,612$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.19 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a81…7debbacked Yes | 60c | 1,534$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.98 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 21c | 1,524$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 77c | 1,521$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.53 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 1,491$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.82 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 1,484$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f9…4e4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,356$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0831…6994backed No | 77c | 1,313$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.77 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,298$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 47c | 1,249$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.04 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 50c | 1,213$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.13 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,185$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb9…c1f3backed No | 53c | 1,123$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.01 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 77c | 1,030$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.2 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5978…66febacked Yes | 12c | 1,023$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…821dbacked No | 75c | 1,022$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a78…a1e0backed Yes | 54c | 1,017$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…f6dcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,007$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1a…76b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…9387backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 65c | 920.71$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.71 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 56c | 885$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…1b4ebacked Yes | 21c | 882.67$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 808.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 37c | 804.99$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.64 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 8c | 800$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 62c | 797.21$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.89 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 59c | 774.02$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.15 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 31c | 751.45$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.95 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 750$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 735.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ed…9a63backed No | 70c | 717.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…15dabacked No | 56c | 713.16$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed No | 75c | 700$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 29c | 700$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 60c | 699.98$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.99 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes | 24c | 699.96$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.04 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5363…3544backed Yes | 27c | 680.46$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…e405backed No | 78c | 676.92$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 15c | 670.74$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.35 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…b6a5backed Yes | 35c | 666.27$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…bc06backed No | 75c | 664.04$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…a91dbacked Yes | 7c | 662.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 35c | 656.24$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.34 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…ed3dbacked Yes | 17c | 654.09$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 25c | 652.8$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.2 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?this page
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Yes won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.