Commodities · resolved market
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x471e2fa06bd8975b77be49a36781bc41286d57bffa84de55173f4eacdbd52b28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,613,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,511,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,613,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 602 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 0c | 151,537$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.44 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f6…d00ebacked Yes | 1c | 120,212$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 4c | 63,296$2,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.95 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 3c | 38,193$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.53 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 22c | 33,207$7,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,170.18 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 32,222$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.18 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 2c | 30,759$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.97 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 11c | 20,782$2,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,363.53 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 1c | 20,067$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.39 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…a91dbacked Yes | 4c | 17,547$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.95 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 17c | 17,380$3,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,031.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1,367.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 1c | 14,657$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.14 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…affebacked Yes | 1c | 13,204$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…e20fbacked Yes | 4c | 12,303$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 13c | 12,284$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.92 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,823$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed Yes | 0c | 11,600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 32c | 11,358$3,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,612.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 28c | 11,292$3,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,163.22 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…6a98backed Yes | 47c | 10,955$5,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,191.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed Yes | 2c | 10,059$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d5…d1bbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked No | 3c | 10,000$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,710 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5160…b803backed Yes | 1c | 9,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 2c | 8,824$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.09 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a8…416cbacked Yes | 5c | 8,596$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 1c | 8,223$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675f…a63bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,951$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed Yes | 46c | 7,634$3,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,523 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 3c | 6,821$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.83 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 52c | 6,762$3,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,223.48 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 6,500$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.7 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 21c | 6,404$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,057.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes | 20c | 6,363$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 54c | 6,000$3,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,258.77 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed Yes | 15c | 5,600$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +250.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…64c3backed Yes | 1c | 5,199$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…bc90backed Yes | 63c | 5,180$3,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,276.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0e…434ebacked Yes | 36c | 5,000$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 2c | 4,500$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,418.46 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +197.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 1c | 4,238$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…5ffdbacked No | 45c | 4,225$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,319.48 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed No | 67c | 4,186$2,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.44 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…2ec4backed Yes | 13c | 3,996$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 12c | 3,887$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.56 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked Yes | 0c | 3,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…7024backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 14c | 3,396$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.38 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3732…43acbacked Yes | 53c | 3,357$1,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…af7ebacked Yes | 30c | 3,329$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 40c | 3,225$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.23 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb9…c1f3backed No | 54c | 3,064$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94cf…3db3backed No | 33c | 3,048$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,056.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +207.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 2,997$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 27c | 2,983$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,185.81 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 1c | 2,963$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 2c | 2,912$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 76c | 2,900$2,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,196.55 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 43cpaid | +197.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 48c | 2,706$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.88 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 60c | 2,695$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.3 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 79c | 2,683$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.67 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 70c | 2,655$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,862.75 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 3c | 2,617$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…3239backed Yes | 12c | 2,601$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 70c | 2,543$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…f6dcbacked Yes | 41c | 2,522$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 8c | 2,373$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,172.58 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 34c | 2,357$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.86 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 74c | 2,330$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.95 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,328$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 53c | 2,326$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.24 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 53c | 2,319$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.4 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…ab03backed Yes | 16c | 2,283$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 67c | 2,162$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.36 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…28a1backed No | 62c | 2,155$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 35c | 2,125$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.85 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Yes | 9c | 2,116$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 12c | 2,096$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.15 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 8c | 2,094$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 60c | 2,023$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.82 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…6b31backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.98 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 5c | 1,975$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,922$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.08 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 11c | 1,909$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.1 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd584…8107backed No | 53c | 1,908$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 7c | 1,899$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.49 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 1,866$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.49 | 184 | 40.2%74 W · 110 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,852$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 34c | 1,822$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.26 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 9c | 1,809$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.87 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 6c | 1,805$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 18c | 1,781$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.8 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94cf…d339backed Yes | 13c | 1,657$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 65c | 1,616$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,603$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc301…6760backed Yes | 1c | 1,558$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.99 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?this page
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Yes won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?No won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.