Commodities · resolved market
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcffcaa1a9c09b26fbc0e1ea1fb5883b2e4d5824022b3b13e14e1202e3f133350
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $451,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $428,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $451,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 459 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 1c | 24,238$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.45 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 0c | 23,900$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 25c | 20,290$4,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,973.94 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 26c | 14,534$3,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,763.78 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 11c | 10,000$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.73 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 20c | 9,389$1,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.99 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 14c | 9,076$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.98 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabc…8f57backed No | 6c | 7,179$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 23c | 7,153$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.8 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed No | 2c | 6,721$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…5ffdbacked No | 37c | 6,256$2,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,325.41 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed No | 14c | 5,861$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.75 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 20c | 5,613$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.7 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…efd6backed Yes | 77c | 5,494$4,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.89 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb9…c1f3backed No | 24c | 4,632$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.29 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 18c | 4,572$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 65c | 4,078$2,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.46 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…af68backed No | 1c | 4,071$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 12c | 3,832$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.65 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…1fcabacked Yes | 80c | 3,395$2,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 78c | 3,359$2,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.06 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 2,858$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.63 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 2,829$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.73 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 2,800$2,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.19 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…b61bbacked No | 30c | 2,552$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 27c | 2,475$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.98 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 24c | 2,436$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.69 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 5c | 2,394$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 2,371$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 20c | 2,368$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.33 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed No | 9c | 2,217$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 75c | 2,200$1,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.35 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked No | 11c | 2,085$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x630f…9f59backed No | 38c | 2,000$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…5afdbacked Yes | 80c | 1,878$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 72c | 1,783$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.24 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 51c | 1,618$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 16c | 1,576$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 20c | 1,515$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.1 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 29c | 1,513$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.8 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…628fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,489$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +171.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 13c | 1,485$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.17 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 6c | 1,481$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 20c | 1,474$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…ae42backed No | 25c | 1,438$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…80c7backed Yes | 56c | 1,435$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 17c | 1,411$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.66 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 32c | 1,294$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 25c | 1,286$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.24 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 74c | 1,212$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.17 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 44c | 1,209$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.37 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 78c | 1,202$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.48 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed No | 45c | 1,199$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.88 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e6…707bbacked No | 39c | 1,178$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Yes | 78c | 1,171$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked No | 24c | 1,138$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Yes | 57c | 1,099$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a5…b589backed Yes | 65c | 1,045$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 22c | 1,026$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.04 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 5c | 1,020$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 76c | 997$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.98 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 32c | 945$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.88 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…11cbbacked No | 27c | 914.22$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 66c | 907.36$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.6 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 16c | 899.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…c1c8backed No | 4c | 853.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed No | 11c | 850$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 842.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…dd55backed No | 54c | 837.88$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…3255backed No | 33c | 837.12$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.36 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 819.71$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 75c | 792.83$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.04 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed No | 14c | 783.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f8…5373backed No | 32c | 766.07$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 13c | 740.46$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 50c | 728.54$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.46 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 78c | 654.82$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.72 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 23c | 648.13$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.26 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf505…7a35backed Yes | 73c | 646.21$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 23c | 639$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.73 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…9055backed Yes | 77c | 634.58$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.52 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 49cpaid | +81%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 15c | 607.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.87 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 78c | 600$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…bd26backed Yes | 62c | 599.02$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 52c | 583.33$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.95 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 71c | 566.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.33 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked No | 29c | 562.29$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.71 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 19c | 550$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 539.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 59c | 529.3$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 24c | 528.27$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.79 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…2c4cbacked No | 19c | 525.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Yes | 75c | 524.58$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.72 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes | 70c | 522.38$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.06 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 17c | 522.24$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…fd71backed No | 16c | 520.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…c01cbacked No | 24c | 517.17$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 507.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?this page
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?No won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.