TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x37e6…f35c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
308
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Commodities, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 57 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT18639.8%74 W · 112 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 186 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$14.42
Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$15.35
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.03
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.79
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$24.25
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+248.9%+$475.18
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.52
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.48
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.38
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+65.2%+$22.46
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.81
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.78
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.09
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.68
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.75
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.98
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+52.6%+$16.14
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+276.6%+$329.14
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.04
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.51
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+176.9%+$92.39
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+59.4%+$127.46
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.28
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+75%+$102.11
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Showing 25 of 186 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT2853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+2.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.52
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+295.1%+$436.01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$210.44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.75
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.28
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.21
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.42
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.46
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.04
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+57%+$116.7
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.8
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+89.7%+$11.04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$377Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+143.6%+$540.88
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$307Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+71.7%+$220.33
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+144.8%+$110.49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+81.3%+$194.01
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$335Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$113.35
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+48.4%+$132.76
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+46.3%+$23.26
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.26
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$23.42
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$643Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$336.93
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT2227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Flavio Cobolli vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 2.5backed Over 2.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.69
Oeiras 3: Henrique Rocha vs Tom Gentzschbacked Tom Gentzsch · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.51
BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos Tsitsipasbacked Stefanos Tsitsipas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.35
Tallahassee: Darwin Blanch vs Daniel Galanbacked Darwin Blanch · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+109.5%+$19.85
Oeiras 3: Rebeka Masarova vs Elena Ruxandra Berteabacked Elena Ruxandra Bertea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.32
Barcelona Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Juan Manuel Cerundolobacked Juan Manuel Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.38
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Eva Lys vs Paula Badosabacked Eva Lys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+854.6%+$99.88
Tallahassee: Colton Smith vs Garrett Johnsbacked Colton Smith · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.49
Oeiras 3: Elmer Moeller vs Nicolas Jarrybacked Nicolas Jarry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+64.7%+$25.23
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Alexandra Eala vs Leylah Fernandezbacked Alexandra Eala · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.96
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Jaqueline Cristianbacked Jaqueline Cristian · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+329.4%+$132.8
Oeiras 3: Darja Semenistaja vs Leolia Jeanjeanbacked Darja Semenistaja · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+147.6%+$53.38
Oeiras 3: Maja Chwalinska vs Kaitlin Quevedobacked Kaitlin Quevedo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.55
Oeiras 3: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tiago Pereirabacked Tiago Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.05
Barcelona Open: Mariano Navone vs Andrey Rublevbacked Mariano Navone · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.83
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Alina Charaevabacked Alina Charaeva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.99
BMW Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marko Topobacked Marko Topo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.15
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Chloe Paquet vs Xinyu Wangbacked Chloe Paquet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.02
BMW Open: Alex Molcan vs Alexander Bublikbacked Alex Molcan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$136.76
Oeiras 3: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Francisca Jorgebacked Francisca Jorge · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.79
Barcelona Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Karen Khachanovbacked Karen Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.33
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Miomir Kecmanovicbacked Miomir Kecmanovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.43
All 22 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT1618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick38cpaid-64%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.29
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.59
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.19
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
World Cup: Scoreless Team?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.7
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.08
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.22
Will England win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.21
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$80.62
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.37
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$91.13
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+178.7%+$248.34
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)backed Uruguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.78
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.05
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.16
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.15
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$448Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+222%+$995.82
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.31
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.08
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+150.8%+$87.41
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$332.12
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.55
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.48
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.17
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+83%+$52.13
US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+92.8%+$104.44
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.19
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+149.4%+$442.88
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$214.19
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.2
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.91
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.82
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+265.7%+$117.43
All 8 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-48.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+84.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.58
Will Sal Da Vinci win Sanremo 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+88.3%+$17.65
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+64%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rosamund Li get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$12.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Ningbo Rocketsbacked Ningbo Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.67
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.