AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbeb0f6a30678fc03706bf563c2edbc6cb6f88877bfe77648184373c03e25e323
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 12c | 5,603$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,956.39 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 36c | 4,803$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576a…1d82backed No | 52c | 4,588$2,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…e33fbacked Yes | 31c | 2,401$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 36c | 2,341$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.77 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed Yes | 33c | 2,237$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 14c | 2,100$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800.51 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed No | 5c | 2,080$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 78c | 2,072$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.01 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4288…2763backed No | 15c | 1,969$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004a…1146backed No | 59c | 1,755$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 1,594$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.97 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 15c | 1,500$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.29 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 12c | 1,451$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.21 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0f…9556backed Yes | 57c | 1,319$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1a…cce9backed No | 2c | 1,213$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…8be6backed No | 2c | 1,153$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…c765backed No | 5c | 1,102$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed No | 16c | 1,032$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157d…d8ccbacked No | 3c | 952$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 65c | 893.14$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.67 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 42c | 860$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.69 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 3c | 805.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 3c | 800$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 29c | 781.89$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.67 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 21c | 722.35$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.03 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 19c | 693.35$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…815bbacked Yes | 14c | 682.85$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +266.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 75c | 680.61$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.53 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 59c | 656.64$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.66 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 42c | 601.24$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 66c | 572.44$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.41 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 32c | 519.21$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 78c | 501.97$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.06 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 42c | 500$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.04 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 446.04$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.6 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f920backed No | 5c | 426.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed No | 18c | 420.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 40c | 377.09$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.84 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…0172backed No | 13c | 366$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 50c | 365.83$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…5c11backed No | 49c | 335.84$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf281…24c9backed No | 76c | 325.42$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 23c | 320.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.66 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed No | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…ea7ebacked No | 76c | 300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 4c | 299.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 44c | 296.07$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 293.42$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.87 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 55c | 284.87$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.56 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed No | 55c | 280.67$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6886…6964backed Yes | 22c | 273.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +353%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed No | 33c | 266.86$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 58c | 262.78$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.42 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 22c | 255.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.45 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 36c | 250.76$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.39 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 23c | 250$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…ff78backed No | 58c | 239.16$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 66c | 224.64$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 77c | 220.01$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.55 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 14c | 220$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 20c | 207.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.43 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…9e2bbacked No | 68c | 206.4$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked No | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked No | 68c | 199$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.32 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…ad49backed No | 69c | 198.42$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 20c | 197.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked No | 37c | 196.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…1354backed No | 51c | 189.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed No | 48c | 185.79$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 15c | 181.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e18…22b3backed No | 9c | 180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…0a9bbacked Yes | 8c | 150.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed No | 38c | 149.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad97…748bbacked No | 28c | 141.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…3a54backed Yes | 69c | 141.18$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b11…38e8backed No | 55c | 140.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed No | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…e6eabacked No | 63c | 134.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 36c | 129.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2909…5326backed No | 67c | 129.32$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 32c | 129.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…36b4backed No | 78c | 125.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 16c | 125.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…c43abacked Yes | 37c | 124.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0831…6994backed Yes | 61c | 123.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf6…1c25backed No | 80c | 123$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…4a42backed No | 25c | 118.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 74c | 118.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…ed9fbacked No | 73c | 117.41$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 116.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xebcf…086abacked No | 41c | 109.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…5323backed No | 44c | 108.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…28bbbacked No | 29c | 103.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.