AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe8d9d554dc616afb9a574393aa881165b7300e67e306731187e34ab1c41be8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 79c | 4,928$3,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.12 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 75c | 3,565$2,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.1 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 2,173$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.87 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 14c | 1,789$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 25c | 1,479$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.62 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 13c | 1,404$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.81 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 14c | 1,346$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.55 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 30c | 1,273$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 13c | 845.65$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 72c | 831.53$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.83 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf6…1c25backed No | 21c | 813.86$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 5c | 746.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed No | 18c | 536.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 14c | 518.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 27c | 459.42$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.38 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…0609backed No | 17c | 458.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 4c | 442.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +287.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 409.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 17c | 400$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed Yes | 73c | 385.38$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…8db7backed No | 22c | 376.73$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 350$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 75c | 331.02$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 24c | 300$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b10…a69dbacked No | 29c | 204.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba2f…25e6backed No | 25c | 177.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 77c | 175$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf281…24c9backed No | 26c | 161.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 24c | 147.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed No | 20c | 147.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…c524backed No | 13c | 143.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 77c | 141.33$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…78fbbacked No | 29c | 134.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 127.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f2…ba79backed Yes | 79c | 125.7$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…c43abacked Yes | 78c | 119.84$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 73c | 119.23$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…ed9fbacked No | 17c | 117.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 76c | 114.93$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedc…8e5ebacked Yes | 78c | 113.13$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…5c11backed No | 21c | 101.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 72c | 100.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…c327backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed No | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7545…c0cebacked No | 24c | 97.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 67c | 97.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5013…8643backed No | 24c | 96.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9493…4d3fbacked Yes | 76c | 84.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked No | 23c | 80.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4f…8a2fbacked No | 24c | 78.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 31c | 75.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 13c | 75.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked No | 53c | 72.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 74c | 71.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x941d…2baabacked Yes | 74c | 66.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc466…0755backed No | 29c | 65.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45b…28f4backed No | 19c | 62.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 71c | 62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 23c | 59.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked No | 24c | 52.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee5…3e14backed No | 26c | 47.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4288…2763backed No | 24c | 46.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc3…79a0backed No | 22c | 45.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf418…b2ccbacked No | 25c | 41.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed No | 57c | 40.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4c…9d4dbacked No | 29c | 39.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…3a54backed Yes | 78c | 37.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked No | 35c | 35.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…685bbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked Yes | 79c | 29.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 55c | 26.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes | 66c | 23.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 74c | 18.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.