AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd16144f59c6f8febe205294dbfbaf34b5ba694de7f5d88834aefeed141a09f9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8423…007bbacked No | 0c | 41,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 35c | 2,069$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.38 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,734$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 69c | 1,690$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.38 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 79c | 1,366$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.33 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 70c | 900$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 6c | 899.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 66c | 699.33$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.25 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…0609backed No | 5c | 437$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 70c | 422$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.6 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 35c | 352.9$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 8c | 288.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 7c | 240$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 17c | 180$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed No | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…878dbacked No | 40c | 137.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked No | 38c | 126.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 72c | 111.97$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 68c | 109.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8d…9b8dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 22c | 80.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a7d8backed No | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 68c | 73.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 76c | 64.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd10c…dd67backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9d…a06cbacked No | 31c | 38.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 73c | 29.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked Yes | 63c | 26.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 63c | 24.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…2f49backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 66c | 19.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 78c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by May 31, 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.