TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbeb2…376d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
133
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Weather at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3868.4%26 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick69cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$6.4
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.8%+$19.28
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.55
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$10.8
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$20.3
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+29.5%+$9.05
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$24.44
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$10.73
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$8.96
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$11.18
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$35
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+42.8%+$14.37
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.75
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+25%+$17.4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$13.64
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.4
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.89
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+48.4%+$99.45
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$14.7
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$19.6
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+45.9%+$39.35
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$7.13
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$8.4
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2075%15 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+370.4%+$122.05
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$6.2
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.8
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$7.68
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$24.56
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$7.04
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$12.37
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$6.19
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$7.98
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$10.56
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.56
Claude 4.7 released by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$25.81
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$19.8
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+31.9%+$7.99
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+28.2%+$8.8
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+28.9%+$7.84
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$24
ChatGPT Outage by February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 20 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1566.7%10 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$10.15
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+28%+$11.2
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.74
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$37.25
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$39.93
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$36.72
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+59.9%+$88.27
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.75
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.34
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$12.6
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$49.34
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$3.36
Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$70.7
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$117
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+26.8%+$33.84
All 15 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT1291.7%11 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick76cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.96
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$14.08
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+25%+$2.6
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+25%+$8
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+44.7%+$14.1
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$33.6
Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$9.1
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+27.3%+$13.74
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+40%+$11.43
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25%+$10
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+28.2%+$28.6
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+49.3%+$4.95
All 12 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$6.72
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$46.5
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$48.79
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.61
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$57.13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.81
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+43.7%+$28.27
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$9.1
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick76cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-35.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-57.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-2.2wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+54%+$95.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$9.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$7.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+26.6%+$4.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
WM Phoenix Open: Hole in One on 16? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+25%+$46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Verizon Communications (VZ) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+25%+$24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$125.92
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.