Middle East · resolved market
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddcea0543acff85d8371c70d4b3d86e23ed77823d48fbf7e44a5f9800a86bf70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…e457backed Yes | 9c | 2,605$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +669.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…d677backed Yes | 7c | 1,239$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…210abacked Yes | 7c | 1,042$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 4c | 606.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 4c | 574.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 571.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 530.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…2031backed Yes | 10c | 516.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +7.3wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…2d7dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 12c | 427.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2a…a512backed Yes | 12c | 404.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…e462backed Yes | 50c | 398$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 52c | 394.86$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.52 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed Yes | 6c | 360$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +79%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…bac3backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…bca7backed Yes | 8c | 328.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…f0ebbacked Yes | 16c | 313.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 266.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…9c85backed Yes | 6c | 266.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 17c | 261.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…89d4backed Yes | 45c | 222.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…8380backed Yes | 14c | 217.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6812…20afbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f1…47c6backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 169.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed No | 78c | 156.94$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked Yes | 12c | 149.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 138.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…f572backed Yes | 22c | 95.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1695…324cbacked Yes | 15c | 86.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe295…55b3backed Yes | 16c | 83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 54c | 77.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b5…447bbacked Yes | 21c | 75.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…82e8backed Yes | 40c | 42.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 66c | 25.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…b413backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30?this page
- U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by February 28?No won
- U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.