Middle East · resolved market
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b14d1a3d182806cfac35085988dc6634b57e41c60a4f744c76393498ca605a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 7c | 2,811$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.67 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…437fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,790$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe537…1eebbacked Yes | 20c | 1,718$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,481$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed Yes | 22c | 1,392$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…d94fbacked No | 80c | 1,375$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.07 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 4c | 1,334$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,287$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed No | 79c | 1,047$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.87 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked No | 78c | 1,017$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 79c | 971$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.91 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked No | 79c | 967$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…9e16backed Yes | 7c | 921.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 21c | 905$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.05 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 852.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 7c | 750$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed Yes | 22c | 694$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed No | 78c | 694$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.68 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +138%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed Yes | 21c | 635$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1c…d417backed Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 577.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 4c | 576.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…aa1dbacked Yes | 7c | 563.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 510.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed No | 79c | 490$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 21c | 490$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 3c | 485.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 21c | 465$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 4c | 442.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed Yes | 21c | 428$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 416.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…b6c5backed Yes | 5c | 408.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60df…30dabacked Yes | 5c | 408.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -87%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…b621backed Yes | 2c | 401.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…f0c9backed Yes | 3c | 396.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 7c | 392$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 380.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed No | 79c | 362$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 21c | 362$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 7c | 317.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 21c | 298$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc698…642ebacked Yes | 12c | 292.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…9c14backed Yes | 7c | 288.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38b4…27e4backed Yes | 5c | 265.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 6c | 260.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked No | 79c | 254$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bc…b0e9backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 242.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 220.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed Yes | 21c | 218$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…4001backed Yes | 12c | 216.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 78c | 212$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 204.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed Yes | 21c | 177$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 8c | 167.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 78c | 163$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe794…321cbacked Yes | 21c | 142$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 139.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 12c | 137.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf420…9989backed Yes | 15c | 135.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…8444backed No | 80c | 125.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…b0c1backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed No | 79c | 99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…1f14backed No | 20c | 56.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x514c…2485backed Yes | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed No | 65c | 48.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked No | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96a3…5738backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 68c | 19.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4e…624dbacked No | 80c | 18.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by February 28?this page
- U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30?No won
- U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.