Middle East · resolved market
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86ede42892e3096f3540a8c2f733e226320dd80d61f0db683a7b70bc179c29d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $339,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $323,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65de…c2a7backed Yes | 23c | 76,870$17,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,749.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…8b84backed No | 77c | 51,190$39,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,592.1 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 14c | 22,173$3,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,017.21 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd05a…f204backed Yes | 20c | 16,500$3,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,339.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 72c | 7,595$5,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,118.09 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe6…2440backed Yes | 7c | 7,477$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…8c1bbacked Yes | 23c | 7,056$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…47f3backed Yes | 22c | 6,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 21c | 4,488$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.8 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e9…825dbacked Yes | 12c | 4,259$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 11c | 3,987$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.93 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 17c | 3,185$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.8 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 24c | 3,115$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.96 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 80c | 3,046$2,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.15 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…aabfbacked Yes | 7c | 2,988$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 79c | 2,505$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.7 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 11c | 2,489$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.16 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 5c | 2,417$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…5830backed No | 78c | 2,317$1,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.04 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,107$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 3c | 2,104$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa720…e62cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,974$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 10c | 1,871$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0a…03cdbacked Yes | 27c | 1,858$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 80c | 1,531$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.68 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…62e9backed Yes | 8c | 1,450$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514c…2485backed Yes | 8c | 1,382$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes | 21c | 1,357$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.83 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 1,295$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.2 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…e090backed Yes | 11c | 1,289$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4b…0b46backed Yes | 21c | 1,287$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.74 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5218…3df7backed Yes | 8c | 1,268$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 7c | 1,226$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.42 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…9a5fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,202$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 15c | 1,172$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…e8a8backed Yes | 27c | 1,094$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…6c36backed No | 78c | 1,084$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…8fb8backed Yes | 12c | 1,080$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.05 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94dd…7b9ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,069$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 63c | 1,062$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.05 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 80c | 1,058$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.07 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…fa25backed Yes | 20c | 1,033$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 15c | 1,015$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.14 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3801…cbe8backed Yes | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 78c | 994$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…7c98backed Yes | 11c | 946.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 76c | 936.32$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.91 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 4c | 905.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7673…9fc8backed Yes | 9c | 903.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.30per pick | 37cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…e90fbacked Yes | 20c | 900$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e36…1920backed Yes | 16c | 886.75$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…1dc8backed Yes | 14c | 886.17$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 4c | 851.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 17c | 837$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…1247backed Yes | 6c | 812.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 79c | 767.93$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.07 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba1…51abbacked Yes | 20c | 705.3$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 78c | 700$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 693.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked No | 80c | 691$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…2323backed Yes | 15c | 685.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1695…324cbacked Yes | 18c | 678.66$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed Yes | 22c | 676$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked Yes | 15c | 652.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c63…eb97backed Yes | 22c | 649.67$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2c…bc2fbacked Yes | 19c | 638.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 22c | 615$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed Yes | 9c | 604.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 19c | 600$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0eff…8897backed Yes | 20c | 594.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.46 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 9c | 577.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 25c | 577.94$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.17 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked Yes | 12c | 570.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 16c | 554.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 14c | 554$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 17c | 550$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c72…d0c6backed Yes | 9c | 549.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 74c | 540$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 38c | 532$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.16 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…4743backed Yes | 40c | 529.03$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 22c | 526$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.72 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…18fcbacked Yes | 9c | 518.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fd…b9c8backed Yes | 24c | 516.71$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.81 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…a0febacked Yes | 19c | 514.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 78c | 513$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 33c | 500.23$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.08 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…b569backed Yes | 34c | 499.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 20c | 496$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yes | 4c | 495.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…4138backed Yes | 23c | 479.24$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab63…feecbacked Yes | 21c | 466.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 25cpaid | +291.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 78c | 450$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a9…1e0dbacked Yes | 22c | 448.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 20c | 430$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 30c | 426.75$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 37c | 409.47$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.45 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked No | 73c | 407.71$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…e462backed Yes | 12c | 401.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4151…945fbacked Yes | 15c | 400.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?this page
- U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30?No won
- U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.