TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc880…8380

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
71
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: MLB, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 55 out of 100; worst Commodities at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-71.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.09
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$51.43
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Myanmar win on 2026-06-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-66.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+67.5%+$101.21
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$110.06
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.52
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+161.2%+$322.44
Military action against Iran ends on March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Military action against Iran ends on March 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$440
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+100%+$97
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$89.65
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.15
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$18.65
Spread: Thunder (-13.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.07
Spread: Celtics (-13.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$100.9
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$76.5
Timberwolves vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$11.98
Magic vs. Raptorsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.16
Spread: Clippers (-17.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Spread: Heat (-8.5)backed Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 11 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+44.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-62.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.