TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,109,915
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,262,272

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,109,915 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ae1…9fadbacked Suns43c678,945$292,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292,308.024957.1%28 W · 21 L+6.4wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Thunder56c150,456$84,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,200.5738253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Thunder58c149,332$87,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,287.9766248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Thunder57c101,693$57,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,727.9136549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Suns46c69,817$32,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,011.71,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Thunder56c60,000$33,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,40014856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Suns43c57,554$24,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,748.4387144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder56c41,935$23,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,645.419,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Thunder56c40,000$22,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,60027747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Thunder56c40,000$22,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,60020758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac25…433fbacked Suns46c20,000$9,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,199.938038.8%31 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Thunder54c17,792$9,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,184.471,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Thunder60c17,060$10,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,823.8311864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Thunder59c16,574$9,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,843.291,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Thunder57c15,587$8,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,702.51,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Thunder60c14,477$8,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,790.9310747.7%51 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Thunder54c14,458$7,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,650.7463746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder55c14,048$7,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,285.334,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder57c13,652$7,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,831.316,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Thunder56c13,000$7,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7209159.3%54 W · 37 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Thunder60c11,895$7,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,769.0714556.6%82 W · 63 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4004,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Thunder56c9,174$5,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,990.61,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Thunder54c7,229$3,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,325.3732351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Thunder54c7,229$3,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,325.3790650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Thunder61c7,157$4,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,794.48763.2%55 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf8…2f4abacked Suns8c7,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.991020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Suns17c6,745$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.161,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Thunder56c6,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,64043352.2%226 W · 207 L+19.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Thunder60c4,067$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.6720945.5%95 W · 114 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed Thunder57c3,927$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,687.578953.9%48 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Suns40c3,498$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.291,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder55c3,388$1,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.012,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Suns39c3,347$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.22,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0b8…b4d4backed Thunder60c3,253$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,301.335054%27 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed Thunder56c3,013$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.6612450.8%63 W · 61 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf29…834cbacked Thunder56c2,907$1,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.912646%58 W · 68 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Thunder56c2,413$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.9321957.1%125 W · 94 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8801,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Thunder56c1,974$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.912,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Thunder54c1,801$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.3424151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Thunder60c1,627$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.6743269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb27…b180backed Thunder60c1,464$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.611153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Thunder56c1,455$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.3165045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b2…2171backed Thunder56c1,307$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.082951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Suns44c1,260$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.416743.7%73 W · 94 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Thunder56c1,233$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.995,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf7…bf20backed Thunder60c1,139$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.47955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e70…14babacked Thunder56c1,043$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.2916642.2%70 W · 96 L-11.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Thunder59c1,015$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.7471654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf19b…1613backed Thunder60c1,009$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.416060%36 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddaf…3de6backed Thunder61c1,002$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.211566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe193…cc85backed Thunder56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4406457.8%37 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Thunder56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44084150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Thunder56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44044252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c0…01f3backed Thunder61c988$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.22544%11 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed Thunder53c983.46$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.928333.7%28 W · 55 L-12.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5f4d…0d5ebacked Thunder60c976$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.42941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x647a…4d7abacked Thunder80c916.77$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.843100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c61…5d06backed Thunder54c900.26$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.875145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Thunder56c892.85$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.8517249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Thunder56c844.32$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.881,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Thunder58c835.4$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.8717052.4%89 W · 81 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d7…0df5backed Suns44c834.62$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.234434.1%15 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Thunder55c832.92$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.7473649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb097…0e61backed Suns45c810.56$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.7512240.2%49 W · 73 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90df…a209backed Thunder54c810.33$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.7529848%143 W · 155 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Thunder56c799.43$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.891,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Thunder55c779.25$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.663948.7%19 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Suns44c700$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30756043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Thunder56c677.51$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.0520647.6%98 W · 108 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Thunder56c599.93$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.6762051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0275…596dbacked Thunder58c587.12$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.5416749.1%82 W · 85 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ba…0bc3backed Suns46c584.63$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.9815650.6%79 W · 77 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Thunder55c583.8$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.7144345.1%200 W · 243 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc1c3…c2e6backed Thunder54c558.23$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.791643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Thunder55c531.06$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.1616959.8%101 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Thunder56c511.14$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.962744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Thunder64c503.41$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.322349.8%111 W · 112 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02f0…1a03backed Suns8c499.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403420.6%7 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Thunder56c482.59$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.533,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Thunder53c479.4$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.3261747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Thunder59c476.71$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.2420946.9%98 W · 111 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3e…7857backed Thunder57c465.77$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.282254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Suns27c456.79$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.411,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1048…06d6backed Thunder54c451.28$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.21471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2018…dfc5backed Thunder54c450.19$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.093737.8%14 W · 23 L-6.1wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-30.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1a4d…4c76backed Thunder56c429.89$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.768057.5%46 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b5b…1902backed Thunder57c425.57$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Suns12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4817946.4%83 W · 96 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Thunder54c360.15$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.6752461.6%323 W · 201 L-0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe56b…2c03backed Thunder54c360.15$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.677247.2%34 W · 38 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb73…af96backed Thunder60c325.33$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.132433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Thunder56c308.01$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.5334850.9%177 W · 171 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d13…643cbacked Thunder53c299.99$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14114338.5%55 W · 88 L-18.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-28.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb8be…3d54backed Suns37c298.28$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.36933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Thunder56c294$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.3656843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6919…7b24backed Thunder54c291.72$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.1910045%45 W · 55 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Suns39c286.49$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7368838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd61…ebbdbacked Suns47c277.67$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.51942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.