NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95bfd7a067f81ee3c4c4714d6f20c187b4964d44f9174513d9234b94f93adedb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 2c | 25,114$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.72 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 56c | 4,125$2,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.82 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 50c | 3,155$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.27 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -7.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 51c | 1,633$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.16 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 1,208$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.96 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…6a99backed Over | 49c | 893.93$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.02 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164d…50c0backed Under | 50c | 677$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.5 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 50c | 641.07$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.54 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed Under | 59c | 580.22$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.87 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…e968backed Over | 50c | 558.66$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.33 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Over | 41c | 527.92$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.45 | 116 | 39.7%46 W · 70 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…7620backed Over | 49c | 509.31$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.56 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…3d96backed Over | 35c | 499.98$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 474.28$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 50c | 398.67$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.34 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 36c | 388.93$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.09 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Under | 51c | 333.05$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.19 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 291$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 188 | 50.5%95 W · 93 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 59c | 259.72$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.01 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 49c | 195.42$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 15c | 190.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 9c | 179.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Over | 50c | 161.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Under | 65c | 151.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 40c | 145.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 55c | 140.17$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed Over | 50c | 137.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…682bbacked Under | 55c | 130$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c94…f9f4backed Over | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -9.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb600…4440backed Under | 59c | 99.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +7.5wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Under | 53c | 96.31$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7291…3d0fbacked Over | 43c | 89.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked Under | 64c | 88.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…e5acbacked Over | 50c | 82.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 200 | 55.5%111 W · 89 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba28…fa8fbacked Over | 47c | 81.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…8096backed Under | 64c | 74.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e80…c709backed Under | 49c | 64.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b3…f8d4backed Over | 49c | 63.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c75…45febacked Under | 56c | 58.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 38c | 56.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 46c | 51.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3f…0513backed Under | 52c | 48.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 279 | 45.9%128 W · 151 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 168 | 42.3%71 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…58f5backed Under | 56c | 41.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 51c | 39.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0881…356abacked Over | 50c | 38.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 61c | 38.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked Under | 53c | 34.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Over | 41c | 34.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | -18.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 50c | 30.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked Under | 53c | 28.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 59c | 24.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…b138backed Under | 66c | 21.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Under | 66c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 0.5Yes won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 0.5Yes won
- Jordan Goodwin: Points O/U 1.5Yes won
- Mark Williams: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Mark Williams: Points O/U 2.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Suns vs. ThunderThunder won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.