NBA · resolved market
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18d69f1efc756e9bb698fa622c9d0214c32771dd9665fb842cb5597c2212d646
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5229…3d24backed Yes | 52c | 806.53$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 48c | 678.85$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 47c | 397.51$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.68 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…6b8abacked Yes | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -16.2wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 48c | 110.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 47c | 105.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd11d…5656backed Yes | 53c | 97.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -10.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…41dfbacked Yes | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Yes | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 48c | 74.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed No | 48c | 71.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad7…ae7ebacked Yes | 52c | 56.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6b…902bbacked Yes | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 46c | 54.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Yes | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…adbabacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 0.5Yes won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 0.5Yes won
- Jordan Goodwin: Points O/U 1.5Yes won
- Mark Williams: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Mark Williams: Points O/U 2.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Suns vs. ThunderThunder won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Under won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.