TailMyPicks
Market

Middle East · resolved market

Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$88,531
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,595

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,531 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes77c11,216$8,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,551.6136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5bcb…725abacked No1c5,422$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.282821.4%6 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No27c3,835$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.3615629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No6c3,166$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.5549023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes66c2,931$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.1438237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40f1…15f9backed Yes50c2,870$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.974526.7%12 W · 33 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-28.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8276…48e4backed Yes39c2,596$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.44128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-78.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No62c2,067$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.889051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+114.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed No1c2,015$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.549728.9%28 W · 69 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No56c2,000$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.617755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No50c1,872$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.9242329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b6f…0e5fbacked No56c1,831$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.134141.5%17 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+88.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No23c1,721$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.8920243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x51a8…bfaebacked No64c1,596$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+67%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f63…6643backed Yes60c1,590$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.55761.4%35 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+30.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No19c1,578$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8215625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe295…55b3backed No4c1,565$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.92748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7244…72e4backed No14c1,500$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2035152.9%27 W · 24 L+16.4wins+0.32per pick21cpaid+138.8%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d54backed No12c1,294$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.164015%6 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-21.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No32c1,194$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.126221%13 W · 49 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-51.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No14c1,162$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4742311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed No14c1,150$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1604330.2%13 W · 30 L+5.9wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+107.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed No40c1,149$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.5610558.1%61 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes34c1,012$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.7412634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeacf…3c55backed No2c1,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc360…dbb2backed No59c999.97$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.986365.1%41 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd512…79b3backed Yes46c950.63$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5094621.7%10 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab6…3a89backed Yes68c925.34$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.371776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+28%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9466…a745backed No46c916.57$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.741020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c863$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.45071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fab…f47bbacked No61c799.99$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4884546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x027c…b158backed No21c713.93$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.938040%32 W · 48 L+11.5wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+83.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No2c650$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes50c640.34$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.579353.8%50 W · 43 L+12.3wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+34.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed No16c600$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964827.1%13 W · 35 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+72.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed No10c599.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+165.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4994…3a64backed Yes44c592.32$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.25837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No3c591.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0510913.8%15 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1033…c765backed Yes68c584.88$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.881973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No48c582.13$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.0950130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c3d…2ff5backed No51c550$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27812843%55 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56de…cfa8backed No67c517.82$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.461553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed No55c501.78$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.7819445.9%89 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No39c482.23$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.1635921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed No64c479.99$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.4915953.5%85 W · 74 L+16.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Yes29c479.98$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.1910132.7%33 W · 68 L+10.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+37.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No57c479.75$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.4629254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked No15c465.02$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.73810.5%4 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No25c459.64$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.1558927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed No12c450.31$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9813532.6%44 W · 91 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed Yes28c431.95$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.9510226.5%27 W · 75 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes60c399.99$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.9964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed No58c399.98$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.999443.6%41 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes64c366.08$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.285630.4%17 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1836…c47cbacked No56c347.48$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes72c333$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4844224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x747c…e189backed No52c309.34$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ea3…71a1backed Yes77c258.59$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+1,954.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc880…8380backed No40c250.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-66.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0e3…6677backed No16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.52817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+141.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No50c243.9$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9536634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d3…0e0fbacked Yes79c230.05$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.312944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No25c220.03$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5313255.3%73 W · 59 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd054…7e38backed No71c205.09$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.197948.1%38 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c58…13b9backed No58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1168655.8%48 W · 38 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fa1…f5a1backed No49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9460…7b3cbacked Yes51c199.88$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.424639.1%18 W · 28 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick30cpaid-7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ead…14f8backed No58c190.24$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.196660.6%40 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes43c188.73$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1821525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes57c183.55$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9334234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed Yes58c180$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.619449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x34db…0a87backed Yes47c167.02$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.021330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2810…80e1backed No37c165.28$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.07540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc1f…222bbacked Yes52c157.2$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.962744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x007f…233abacked Yes76c149.99$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365366%35 W · 18 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e0b…d2edbacked Yes68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No59c140.03$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2816648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf1…8506backed Yes73c137.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.217061.4%43 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba6…2d86backed No39c133.94$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0450%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b64…8c81backed Yes53c131.06$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.061656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf534…0a67backed Yes39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.211668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+27.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa461…878abacked Yes43c116.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.274938.8%19 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27b7…0704backed No50c111.5$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.896662.1%41 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaca4…f852backed No65c107.69$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702927.6%8 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…abc2backed Yes47c106.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.06757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes58c105.5$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9186542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e1…696ebacked No39c105$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.954273.8%31 W · 11 L+7.9wins+0.19per pick55cpaid+40%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9f60…b0a4backed No64c101.12$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65110%0 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5920035.5%71 W · 129 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14eb…b7f6backed No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614035%14 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa0f…a2f3backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+135.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3524839.5%98 W · 150 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26ad…8c4ebacked Yes36c99.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xccdd…a831backed Yes79c94.67$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.882343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9022…db5bbacked Yes79c93.35$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.334257.1%24 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed Yes70c89.59$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2118246.2%84 W · 98 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3676…330cbacked Yes43c85$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.45742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed No60c84.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.23658.3%21 W · 15 L+6.6wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+35.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No39c83.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4621333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.