TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6ead…14f8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
97
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NBA, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT6660.6%40 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 66 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$59
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.01
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.75
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+59.3%+$88.21
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$49
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+28%+$83.89
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$44.4
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+54.6%+$32.73
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.84
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+131.1%+$305.42
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$329.16
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+73.5%+$73.5
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+87.4%+$129.31
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$40.8
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$645Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$645
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$117
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.42
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.7
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.29
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$26.92
Showing 25 of 66 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.92
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$33.33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+70.5%+$89.67
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+65.9%+$37.75
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+57.2%+$40.06
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.6
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+58%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Saski Baskonia vs. Hapoel Tel Avivbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Barcelona vs. Hapoel Tel Avivbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$20.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)backed Club Atlético de Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$16.42
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+66.7%+$13.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.