NBA · resolved market
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6486fd287c4c3c3a3540d0faac77c611b6bbe621f6dd86f39f9a3f473dddfaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5de…cabebacked Yes | 54c | 535.76$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 62c | 466.49$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.29 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe28c…80dfbacked Yes | 57c | 346.32$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Yes | 51c | 299.8$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 6c | 242.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 49c | 179.59$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked No | 10c | 173.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 43c | 167.83$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ead…14f8backed Yes | 53c | 99.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +58%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 46c | 80.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 71.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 250 | 45.6%114 W · 136 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…3fddbacked Yes | 54c | 62.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 45c | 59.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe027…6cbbbacked Yes | 55c | 42.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da7…8bb1backed Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 45c | 35.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 47c | 34.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5231…4907backed Yes | 55c | 32.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf91…39cabacked Yes | 55c | 24.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…5bccbacked Yes | 62c | 24.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b4…fa63backed No | 72c | 20.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5feb…89a5backed Yes | 55c | 19.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games?this page
- Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 through 4 games?No won
- Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.