Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x232ae0932dad1b4ca049881715f094c1e424604d2fd3e1b0ad01f0893cb3059f

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $103,169
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $95,751

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,169 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0484…e0eebacked Yes	14c	4,590$654 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$653.75	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes	19c	3,564$673 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$672.95	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed Yes	11c	3,112$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.55	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.28per pick	45cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88e2…7489backed Yes	12c	3,042$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.04	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes	10c	2,343$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.33	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	3c	2,210$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.94	179	21.2%38 W · 141 L	+10.6wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+56.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked No	78c	1,998$1,558 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$439.56	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	22c	1,996$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.12	110	39.1%43 W · 67 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa768…0e17backed Yes	15c	1,719$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes	22c	1,708$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.34	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+6.3wins	+0.15per pick	41cpaid	+52%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes	2c	1,644$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.88	85	52.9%45 W · 40 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+32.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac85…7e1dbacked Yes	12c	1,350$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	2c	1,319$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.83	193	15.5%30 W · 163 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	1,095$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.57	169	1.8%3 W · 166 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	6c	1,054$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.9	167	6.6%11 W · 156 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	756.04$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.12	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes	20c	755.99$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.76	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	749.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.3	254	3.5%9 W · 245 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa6…559bbacked Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3f…2ce6backed Yes	12c	691.58$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.39	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	9c	636.96$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.33	135	7.4%10 W · 125 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a8…865abacked Yes	10c	630.88$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.14	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	623.77$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.72	211	7.1%15 W · 196 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1776…67b6backed Yes	24c	601.84$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.76	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ca…ebd1backed Yes	14c	585.12$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4586…c4bebacked Yes	34c	523$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No	79c	522.86$413 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.19	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes	40c	522.54$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf75…3880backed Yes	13c	517.17$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a74…ae2bbacked Yes	4c	515.77$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.63	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed No	78c	501$391 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.22	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.8wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+143.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	133	43.6%58 W · 75 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes	5c	494.52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.51	132	25%33 W · 99 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	10c	404.82$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.67	220	29.5%65 W · 155 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes	12c	400$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked No	77c	399.55$308 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.9	59	42.4%25 W · 34 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6005…9625backed No	80c	388.79$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.93	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc91e…07ddbacked Yes	15c	382.75$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.41	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb7e…28ddbacked Yes	8c	319$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.83	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab8c…256ebacked No	80c	312.5$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.5	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.13per pick	65cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x223e…accdbacked Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bef…f650backed Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.21per pick	39cpaid	+28%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Yes	9c	260$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	81	42%34 W · 47 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f8b…56edbacked Yes	9c	244.78$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.76	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe397…60b6backed Yes	14c	240.89$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	17c	239.7$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.9	45	15.6%7 W · 38 L	-4.4wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	15c	236.38$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.36	173	30.1%52 W · 121 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	9c	229.12$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.62	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+3.0wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	28c	222$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.16	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	+4.1wins	+0.08per pick	27cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	19c	210$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	142	25.4%36 W · 106 L	-8.0wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes	17c	200$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf76a…b506backed Yes	28c	200$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14fe…cdb9backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03b3…9a65backed Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	44cpaid	-58%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38c7…806ebacked Yes	21c	200$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+38.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes	33c	200$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	108	44.4%48 W · 60 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked No	79c	181$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.01	11	90.9%10 W · 1 L	+3.2wins	+0.29per pick	62cpaid	+83.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x643c…3fc2backed Yes	23c	176.94$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.64	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed No	78c	150$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.12per pick	68cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0a3…962fbacked No	78c	149.5$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.89	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x23fc…ef88backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b4d…07efbacked Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7736…c991backed Yes	14c	138.93$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	16c	136.14$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.32	140	27.9%39 W · 101 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9387…6dcbbacked Yes	37c	134.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c74…a88fbacked Yes	14c	115.64$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.19	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ce…1167backed Yes	35c	115.13$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…e255backed Yes	14c	109.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd84c…bb1bbacked Yes	14c	108.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x482c…7f92backed Yes	28c	107.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c97…67aebacked Yes	14c	104.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked No	78c	102.56$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.56	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c7…6e05backed Yes	13c	101.26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No	67c	100$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+2.6wins	+0.26per pick	54cpaid	+52%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x51b2…10cebacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d5b…4432backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa657…1b1fbacked Yes	14c	98.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.85	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77fa…1a63backed Yes	16c	98.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a96…b382backed No	80c	86.99$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.4	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	62cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58b9…3e6ebacked Yes	21c	85.71$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f6b…4a90backed Yes	14c	77.64$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fc…eccbbacked Yes	15c	64.67$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ead…14f8backed No	78c	64$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.08	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No	72c	64$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.65	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x946e…1225backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02cb…61c0backed No	77c	38.78$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	71cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5e…ff63backed No	77c	32.26$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.27	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e0…c1bbbacked No	78c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a6a…3130backed No	80c	18.75$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.75	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62af…3988backed No	79c	18.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.97	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dbd…1939backed No	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?this page
Israeli parliament dissolved by December 31?No won
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?No won
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?Yes won
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 17?Yes won
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?Yes won
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15?No won
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?No won
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?No won
Israeli parliament dissolved by October 31?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event