World Politics · resolved market
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab9a49d1847c9525be2a356fee8ef910dc365ddcc30110df6e72712d90f60acb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 0c | 10,860$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 1c | 10,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 4c | 4,156$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.89 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 1c | 2,943$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 1c | 2,162$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 1c | 1,700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked No | 22c | 1,505$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 12c | 1,500$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked No | 24c | 905.17$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 5c | 567.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…c1f9backed No | 8c | 458$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked No | 6c | 355.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked No | 10c | 349.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…2ebfbacked No | 36c | 275.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 16c | 243.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…deb0backed Yes | 66c | 157.82$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 22c | 140.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…21a1backed No | 15c | 123.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c3…4bcbbacked No | 19c | 122.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0f…8033backed No | 37c | 121.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d3…91dabacked Yes | 80c | 118.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes | 61c | 113.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 18c | 113.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…d395backed No | 10c | 102.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…6cb6backed No | 23c | 96.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2c…dce3backed Yes | 80c | 93.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…1377backed No | 60c | 92.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b38…eed3backed No | 38c | 65.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088b…21ccbacked No | 27c | 64.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b2…2e8cbacked No | 34c | 61.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1b…80cdbacked No | 34c | 55.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…d718backed No | 39c | 51.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…67dcbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 74c | 30.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fe…4579backed No | 55c | 29.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…3cdfbacked Yes | 64c | 23.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225e…05b1backed Yes | 78c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…1707backed Yes | 78c | 17.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 78c | 12.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 17?this page
- Israeli parliament dissolved by December 31?No won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?No won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?Yes won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?Yes won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15?No won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?No won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?No won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?No won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.