TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcbcc…1377

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
73
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: CS2, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 61 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$409Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$165.24
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+235.7%+$254.6
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$16.36
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$383.6
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.27
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+88.3%+$265.93
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.71
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.63
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+334.6%+$101.8
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+99.9%+$62.32
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.65
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$169.81
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$18.06
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.09
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+59.9%+$41.63
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+139.6%+$108.45
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT1921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.11
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+741.9%+$971.05
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$399.34
Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.95
Will France finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.6
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$359.61
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+210.1%+$117.64
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.94
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.15
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.57
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.74
Will Ghana win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.68
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Australia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.24
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancebacked Senegal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.1
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$22.37
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+152.3%+$60.94
All 19 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Valorant — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alphabacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.93
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alphabacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+128.7%+$69.44
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alphabacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.05
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alphabacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+110.7%+$86.2
Valorant: Paper Rex vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omegabacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$59
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alphabacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+102.6%+$78.37
Will Paper Rex win the EWC Valorant Tournamentbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$152
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group Abacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winnerbacked Leviatán Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+62.2%+$6.94
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked Leviatán Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+89.9%+$21.37
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$26.15
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+752.1%+$212.53
Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.74
Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.75
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will LeBron James play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.7
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.46
Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.05
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+69%+$137.77
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$274.02
Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 11 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+145.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
CS2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.