TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Leviatán Esportsof EDward Gaming, Leviatán Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$289,128
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$335,138

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $289,128 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc44f…d49fbacked EDward Gaming32c25,784$8,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,250.886150.8%31 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89dd…f662backed Leviatán Esports67c25,028$16,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,259.181485.7%12 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+50.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed Leviatán Esports68c23,072$15,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,383.0825855.4%143 W · 115 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed EDward Gaming33c17,777$5,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,866.4124145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed EDward Gaming25c16,103$4,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,074.493649.3%461 W · 475 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked EDward Gaming79c9,761$7,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,736.391154.5%6 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick74cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Leviatán Esports64c7,000$4,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,500.9952455.2%289 W · 235 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked EDward Gaming21c4,125$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.8268458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc23e…98a4backed Leviatán Esports54c3,698$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed EDward Gaming32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.9939142.5%166 W · 225 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed EDward Gaming39c2,785$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.6113050.8%66 W · 64 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Leviatán Esports37c2,650$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.5632047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc368…a3c4backed EDward Gaming52c2,567$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed EDward Gaming13c2,330$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.722118.1%40 W · 181 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Leviatán Esports60c1,967$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.9910238.2%39 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabcc…10b4backed EDward Gaming21c1,874$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+28.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe32a…1f66backed Leviatán Esports32c1,840$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.891963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed EDward Gaming32c1,764$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.4615038%57 W · 93 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed EDward Gaming37c1,632$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.613650%18 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked EDward Gaming27c1,632$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4389340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54a1…f88bbacked Leviatán Esports66c1,561$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.638936%32 W · 57 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x823d…f85bbacked EDward Gaming27c1,503$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed EDward Gaming44c1,417$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.91,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked EDward Gaming41c1,414$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.951,61245.1%727 W · 885 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Leviatán Esports64c1,333$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.181,28132.1%411 W · 870 L-67.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f70…123dbacked EDward Gaming33c1,318$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.91442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…30afbacked EDward Gaming33c1,200$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-40.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked Leviatán Esports48c1,200$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.984544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba5e…f9c4backed EDward Gaming33c1,128$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.163053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a13…4d34backed EDward Gaming20c1,100$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2222330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked EDward Gaming61c1,081$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.394361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Leviatán Esports56c1,029$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.5370543.5%307 W · 398 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed EDward Gaming17c982.92$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.7753159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x879b…9cb2backed EDward Gaming25c959.9$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Leviatán Esports67c900$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29721055.2%116 W · 94 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08e7…4f63backed EDward Gaming33c869.7$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2874156.1%23 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+39.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Leviatán Esports40c847.73$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.7330652.3%160 W · 146 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Leviatán Esports60c835.66$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.4578344.1%345 W · 438 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcc…0d8abacked EDward Gaming31c756.74$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.8715217.8%27 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b8c…9fffbacked EDward Gaming33c745.52$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.021747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Leviatán Esports62c741.38$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.3742140.4%170 W · 251 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed EDward Gaming52c725.9$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.5851849.6%257 W · 261 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e99…ce35backed Leviatán Esports56c700$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3111225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked EDward Gaming52c696.84$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.7753455.2%295 W · 239 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked EDward Gaming54c679.57$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.729151.6%47 W · 44 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Leviatán Esports47c627.74$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.7414534.5%50 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed EDward Gaming53c608.31$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.676259.7%37 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed EDward Gaming33c606.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20035157.3%201 W · 150 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Leviatán Esports63c577.05$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.7389344.3%396 W · 497 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked EDward Gaming55c566.53$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.881,31243.8%575 W · 737 L-44.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed EDward Gaming33c564$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.1213843.5%60 W · 78 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Leviatán Esports50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17d3…586bbacked Leviatán Esports55c499.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2256250%31 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2366…580fbacked EDward Gaming25c499.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Leviatán Esports29c471$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.531,36538.9%531 W · 834 L-60.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Leviatán Esports58c444$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.11,60737.5%603 W · 1,004 L-75.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8e6…d471backed Leviatán Esports68c419.3$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.183966.7%26 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed EDward Gaming33c400$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1324240.5%17 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Leviatán Esports68c399.99$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1285858.6%34 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcab9…eb2dbacked EDward Gaming60c391.8$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6bf…05b6backed EDward Gaming26c385.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed EDward Gaming31c376$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.414850%74 W · 74 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Leviatán Esports68c367.65$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.6523563.4%149 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked EDward Gaming60c330$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1981040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed EDward Gaming9c328.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306251.6%32 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe767…9107backed EDward Gaming60c316.83$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.16755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Leviatán Esports53c316.75$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.9385138.1%324 W · 527 L-51.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5377…7b29backed EDward Gaming20c314.81$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.242147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Leviatán Esports35c310$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.8923836.1%86 W · 152 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Leviatán Esports48c306.43$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.683154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5088…cfc5backed EDward Gaming40c303.21$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+104.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe123…b4ffbacked EDward Gaming60c300.64$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.382157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ea…863dbacked EDward Gaming37c299.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed Leviatán Esports68c294.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1233546.6%156 W · 179 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cca…54ccbacked EDward Gaming33c288.36$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea5…6163backed Leviatán Esports54c278.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Leviatán Esports55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.739041.1%37 W · 53 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed EDward Gaming31c262.02$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.493248.1%448 W · 484 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed EDward Gaming47c261.57$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.636373%46 W · 17 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xba4a…cf36backed EDward Gaming33c259.3$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18e0…9534backed EDward Gaming32c257.01$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2450%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed EDward Gaming58c250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14523644.9%106 W · 130 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb627…68b5backed EDward Gaming26c250$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb03…46dcbacked Leviatán Esports68c249.99$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…07aebacked EDward Gaming17c249.44$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Leviatán Esports16c244.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.9760423%139 W · 465 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x788c…b217backed EDward Gaming33c231.85$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.51966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed Leviatán Esports68c230.82$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8643459.2%257 W · 177 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8983…d301backed Leviatán Esports68c230.69$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.821844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cbb…75a1backed EDward Gaming58c225.35$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.52634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaf2…dfa9backed Leviatán Esports68c220.59$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.596456.3%36 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick58cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Leviatán Esports54c219$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1996945%436 W · 533 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed EDward Gaming75c211.9$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.2720855.8%116 W · 92 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed EDward Gaming42c207.45$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9629151.5%150 W · 141 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa487…9439backed EDward Gaming33c207.15$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.364736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65b7…3798backed Leviatán Esports67c201.48$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4919052.6%100 W · 90 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc566…f8d7backed Leviatán Esports32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13614737.4%55 W · 92 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe745…acf5backed EDward Gaming26c194.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d1…3d4cbacked EDward Gaming26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507716.9%13 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked EDward Gaming32c191.6$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.316048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.