TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Leviatán Esportsof EDward Gaming, Leviatán Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$185,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$243,246

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,217 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5bbe…c65dbacked EDward Gaming1c40,079$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.793432.4%11 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed Leviatán Esports61c27,107$16,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,517.9825554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed EDward Gaming41c15,096$6,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,18324145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed EDward Gaming34c5,924$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,988.081,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked EDward Gaming35c4,237$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.2926650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked EDward Gaming36c3,753$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3519340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac9c…50d8backed EDward Gaming0c3,310$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8110217.6%18 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Leviatán Esports65c3,205$2,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.7933153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed EDward Gaming32c3,090$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.114750.3%74 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed EDward Gaming29c2,750$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.532047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed EDward Gaming35c2,556$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.5914938.3%57 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d3…586bbacked EDward Gaming14c2,520$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.056250%31 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Leviatán Esports66c2,097$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.9726738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9db…1f05backed EDward Gaming0c2,040$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-68.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Leviatán Esports69c1,883$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.2918056.1%101 W · 79 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Leviatán Esports75c1,830$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.2793049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa487…9439backed EDward Gaming33c1,817$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.884736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Leviatán Esports71c1,649$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.2153159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked EDward Gaming37c1,539$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.7312143%52 W · 69 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Leviatán Esports69c1,445$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.361,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Leviatán Esports71c1,304$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.9965559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8e6…d471backed Leviatán Esports67c1,268$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.283966.7%26 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf651…c57fbacked Leviatán Esports66c1,250$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.291741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2951…e1b1backed EDward Gaming14c1,249$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked EDward Gaming41c1,235$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.69850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed EDward Gaming36c1,116$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.67342.5%31 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Leviatán Esports74c1,115$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.6688844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked EDward Gaming17c1,080$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.4710238.2%39 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48e0…826dbacked EDward Gaming21c999.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked EDward Gaming37c941.71$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34728747.4%136 W · 151 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Leviatán Esports68c900.5$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.341,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed EDward Gaming31c706.06$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.887847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbb…5e47backed EDward Gaming23c686.25$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked EDward Gaming2c660.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525336.4%92 W · 161 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8c…9fffbacked Leviatán Esports79c633.16$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.161747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed EDward Gaming9c632.05$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3360022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked EDward Gaming32c621.19$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.7853355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Leviatán Esports60c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24030652.3%160 W · 146 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x435f…2de6backed EDward Gaming23c527.02$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.21850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe32a…1f66backed Leviatán Esports60c525$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed EDward Gaming38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19053442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b4d…5f4abacked EDward Gaming36c480.36$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.936931.9%22 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed EDward Gaming26c443.34$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1328541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed Leviatán Esports65c395.42$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.766259.7%37 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bcc…0d8abacked EDward Gaming4c381.12$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4215217.8%27 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Leviatán Esports65c370.99$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.851,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddc4…0270backed EDward Gaming6c359.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed EDward Gaming14c330.45$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.836145.7%165 W · 196 L+22.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Leviatán Esports71c304.52$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3168458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0362…2af9backed EDward Gaming8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6bf…05b6backed EDward Gaming35c286.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe80c…f3e6backed EDward Gaming36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked EDward Gaming35c266.7$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.356048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Leviatán Esports70c248.68$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6810975.2%82 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Leviatán Esports67c247.76$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.7614534.5%50 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb627…68b5backed EDward Gaming33c244.31$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.621668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked EDward Gaming29c239.31$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.784838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c0e…8177backed Leviatán Esports68c235.29$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.292470.8%17 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Leviatán Esports65c230.09$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5362856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Leviatán Esports67c220.7$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4294361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked EDward Gaming38c220.65$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8521055.2%116 W · 94 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a62…fc1abacked EDward Gaming14c210$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.323432.4%11 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb02…c292backed Leviatán Esports75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503571.4%25 W · 10 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+30.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Leviatán Esports70c194.2$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.811,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Leviatán Esports59c182.22$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7326450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1ec…64b6backed EDward Gaming41c167.28$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.366028.3%17 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked EDward Gaming36c161$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9636138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd054…c6bebacked Leviatán Esports62c160$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.81464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed EDward Gaming33c151.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.117565.3%49 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Leviatán Esports66c149.27$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0220755.6%115 W · 92 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b8d…4b6fbacked Leviatán Esports67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.257265.3%47 W · 25 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed5a…656cbacked Leviatán Esports67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.251145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c9a…805cbacked EDward Gaming14c147.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705c…317dbacked EDward Gaming36c146.81$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.851442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed EDward Gaming35c142.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015038%57 W · 93 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked EDward Gaming24c138$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0455637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed EDward Gaming30c127.76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2293148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8faa…e76abacked EDward Gaming18c116.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b7…3798backed Leviatán Esports66c101.52$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5218952.4%99 W · 90 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed EDward Gaming17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.74240.5%17 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Leviatán Esports64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3621457%122 W · 92 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6281…e326backed Leviatán Esports70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed Leviatán Esports65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3543059.8%257 W · 173 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed Leviatán Esports59c97.07$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.86373%46 W · 17 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x19bb…9100backed EDward Gaming33c94.52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.191338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked EDward Gaming32c93.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015535.5%55 W · 100 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Leviatán Esports76c90$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.622455.4%124 W · 100 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed EDward Gaming28c89.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513933.1%46 W · 93 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5024…b8bcbacked Leviatán Esports70c86.09$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.833762.2%23 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed EDward Gaming35c82.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.721,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked EDward Gaming20c81.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5468949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10f8…e7f5backed Leviatán Esports62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.653452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2460…e144backed Leviatán Esports71c77.46$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4628151.6%145 W · 136 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x239c…f7c2backed EDward Gaming14c76.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.71118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x944e…2918backed EDward Gaming21c75.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed EDward Gaming36c74.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.676637.9%25 W · 41 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f48…0b0dbacked Leviatán Esports67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6318457.1%105 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd181…6a2bbacked Leviatán Esports71c70.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.751776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick63cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8419…6da4backed EDward Gaming30c63.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xade6…c465backed Leviatán Esports68c60.84$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2665347.3%309 W · 344 L-18.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.