TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: EDward Gaming vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BBL Esportsof EDward Gaming, BBL Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$307,677
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$360,918

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,677 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 411 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8660…93edbacked BBL Esports54c20,068$10,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,231.9417948.6%87 W · 92 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed BBL Esports62c17,946$11,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,863.2324145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed EDward Gaming36c13,746$4,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,933.375246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed EDward Gaming38c13,059$4,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,962.3454751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed BBL Esports60c12,023$7,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,835.5434356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed BBL Esports64c10,000$6,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,609.4852155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0df…5974backed BBL Esports55c8,841$4,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,994.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed BBL Esports61c8,697$5,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,385.6512138.8%47 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed EDward Gaming40c7,915$3,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1666229%18 W · 44 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked EDward Gaming39c7,692$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.88650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed EDward Gaming51c5,699$2,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,881.3710842.6%46 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe49…de5cbacked EDward Gaming46c5,428$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.85728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5d6…c4adbacked BBL Esports60c5,200$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,060.81450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed EDward Gaming46c5,069$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.5115843%68 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked EDward Gaming39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.9426738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f4…e02fbacked BBL Esports36c4,572$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,907.751963.2%12 W · 7 L+5.2wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8731…2c12backed EDward Gaming42c4,465$1,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,897520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed EDward Gaming58c4,357$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.315058%29 W · 21 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6798…7fbdbacked EDward Gaming20c4,185$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-54.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed EDward Gaming39c3,396$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340.483240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked BBL Esports63c3,228$2,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.9450944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed EDward Gaming31c3,088$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.4346326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed BBL Esports54c3,067$1,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,400.2134857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked EDward Gaming59c3,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.9886747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f9b…efabbacked BBL Esports55c2,809$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,264.241560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8a…76a2backed EDward Gaming46c2,749$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.972147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed EDward Gaming37c2,733$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004042.5%17 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed BBL Esports41c2,654$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.0332245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed BBL Esports57c2,654$1,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.122344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed EDward Gaming40c2,520$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.994247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaca…4e2dbacked EDward Gaming46c2,500$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked EDward Gaming47c2,281$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0729340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed EDward Gaming66c2,244$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+51.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed EDward Gaming34c2,214$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.6493049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88db…54a4backed EDward Gaming46c2,135$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9821947.4%9 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed EDward Gaming39c2,129$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.531,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed EDward Gaming42c2,020$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.81,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1181…f7e8backed EDward Gaming20c2,011$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.31922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed EDward Gaming46c2,003$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.63938.5%15 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c23…cab3backed EDward Gaming57c1,997$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.027656.6%43 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed EDward Gaming39c1,804$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.6619040%76 W · 114 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x119d…bec3backed EDward Gaming8c1,740$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1405536.4%20 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked BBL Esports72c1,667$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.336442.2%27 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked EDward Gaming40c1,666$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.47550.7%38 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed EDward Gaming41c1,651$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.58538.8%33 W · 52 L-11.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-27.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed BBL Esports63c1,548$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.444669.6%32 W · 14 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7441…4891backed BBL Esports59c1,531$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.761957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1056…3c9dbacked EDward Gaming45c1,436$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.251952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x211a…c765backed BBL Esports32c1,374$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.681050%5 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+22.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2f9…db30backed BBL Esports35c1,325$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.453745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf7…9907backed EDward Gaming41c1,296$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.883928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2f4…cddbbacked BBL Esports64c1,281$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.431384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+35.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52a6…ab62backed BBL Esports57c1,241$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.521741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03d8…e73cbacked BBL Esports60c1,223$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.343050%15 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked BBL Esports60c1,205$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.9516347.2%77 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed EDward Gaming37c1,200$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.2953442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked BBL Esports61c1,200$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46833153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed EDward Gaming36c1,180$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.88934.8%31 W · 58 L-11.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-29.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed EDward Gaming38c1,159$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.9315038%57 W · 93 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f20…ca83backed EDward Gaming39c1,136$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x625a…867ebacked BBL Esports27c1,111$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.37540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked BBL Esports63c1,066$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.4111450%57 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked EDward Gaming42c1,024$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.528747.4%136 W · 151 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked BBL Esports74c1,017$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.994353.5%23 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed BBL Esports42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58019655.6%109 W · 87 L+12.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked EDward Gaming43c997.5$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.9326450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed BBL Esports36c990.75$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.081741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ed…1ea1backed EDward Gaming41c869.51$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.58347%39 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x495c…c9eabacked BBL Esports62c827.11$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed BBL Esports75c811.37$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.9633346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed EDward Gaming36c791.95$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.14542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42dd…5d2bbacked BBL Esports61c779.99$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.24537.8%17 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed EDward Gaming14c741.03$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1360022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed EDward Gaming36c718$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.482744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked BBL Esports58c705.64$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.081,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked BBL Esports64c699.78$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.927044.3%31 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed BBL Esports54c696.27$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.5116547.9%79 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked EDward Gaming39c677.7$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.6335142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x781d…201bbacked EDward Gaming42c674.66$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.061145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+52.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked BBL Esports50c671.84$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.871,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8037…04fabacked BBL Esports33c659.98$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.194843.8%21 W · 27 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed BBL Esports50c638.73$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.9523151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked EDward Gaming39c633$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.87520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed EDward Gaming48c627.16$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.1249255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed BBL Esports30c625.29$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.722018.2%40 W · 180 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…6625backed BBL Esports64c617.13$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.172740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked EDward Gaming32c602.35$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.531,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00a8…d2c8backed BBL Esports60c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2405442.6%23 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed EDward Gaming65c577.12$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.5414850.7%75 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked BBL Esports64c551.87$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.8614653.4%78 W · 68 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ee…0267backed EDward Gaming44c549.02$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.210655.7%59 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c90…2f6bbacked EDward Gaming41c545.14$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.094438.6%17 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked EDward Gaming38c506.35$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.7496245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed BBL Esports35c504.38$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.858145.7%37 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked EDward Gaming47c501.89$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.0728743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed BBL Esports60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20018049.4%89 W · 91 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0193…bad1backed EDward Gaming40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked BBL Esports60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2004544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed EDward Gaming37c495.17$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.224250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed EDward Gaming39c489.99$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.126051.9%135 W · 125 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.