AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcedee525cc281f26ce8f75e595ede37ec93e8b9d0845046a6bfc4e0e653c9ade
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No | 32c | 7,259$2,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,305.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed Yes | 71c | 5,187$3,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.21 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 3,818$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.4 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c95…10f5backed Yes | 64c | 3,495$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 8c | 1,342$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.37 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 14c | 1,228$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.8 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 36c | 619.18$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked No | 27c | 561.01$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.04 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 34c | 499$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 4c | 435.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…1377backed No | 23c | 426.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 68c | 420.68$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.56 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27da…d24abacked No | 15c | 310$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…44f1backed Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb81…423abacked No | 35c | 299.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…722ebacked No | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b6…eda1backed No | 18c | 286.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 19c | 252.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 35c | 252$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 18c | 250.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 43c | 206.56$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.45 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 34c | 187$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 17c | 179.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x604f…f149backed Yes | 64c | 157.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…5506backed No | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 65c | 134$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 78c | 129.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 17c | 126.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…23f9backed No | 33c | 120.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…3649backed No | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 36c | 112.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 25c | 109.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 36c | 102.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4460…54d1backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…2e01backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2c…a30ebacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…e865backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…a70ebacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 70c | 87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed No | 36c | 85.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 18c | 85.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71b9…58a7backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8a…5d15backed No | 35c | 76.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 23c | 76.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 71c | 68.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 20c | 61.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1b…6b33backed No | 29c | 52.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 37c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 50.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…0fe6backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…ea35backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…1e3abacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…becfbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 67c | 49.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 72c | 42.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…7be3backed No | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 35.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…c12abacked No | 51c | 23.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30cb…36b7backed Yes | 70c | 23.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 55c | 18.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 16, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 17, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.