AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66f14a9551a07519655fa8a5f3fa8a50b0654579531cea06d0effc17f4a3fde0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 15,150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed Yes | 63c | 6,842$4,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,527.06 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No | 36c | 6,232$2,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,214.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f9…963abacked No | 11c | 5,719$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 63c | 2,267$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.85 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 2,072$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 33c | 1,889$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.69 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 6c | 1,502$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked No | 54c | 1,309$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 1,239$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.86 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 11c | 1,143$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.85 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 80c | 1,001$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.98 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…ae6fbacked No | 11c | 913.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed No | 10c | 800.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 26c | 800$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 42c | 772.31$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.86 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 25c | 763.75$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.7 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed No | 51c | 735.29$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.91 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked No | 8c | 697.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…6780backed Yes | 52c | 693.08$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…c9d3backed No | 51c | 676.77$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 29c | 567.33$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 39c | 514.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.67 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…44f1backed Yes | 54c | 467.59$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.92 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed No | 42c | 400$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…f014backed Yes | 53c | 378.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +146.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 30c | 356.49$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…722ebacked No | 10c | 344.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed No | 25c | 299.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 44c | 270.15$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.57 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…0095backed No | 8c | 251.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91a…2d4fbacked No | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked Yes | 57c | 241.47$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…8477backed Yes | 66c | 241$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4f…b706backed Yes | 50c | 212.59$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +146.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…1752backed No | 48c | 207.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 50c | 188.28$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.14 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…94e1backed No | 21c | 172.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 32c | 158.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 56c | 151.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 72c | 140.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…41d7backed No | 34c | 134.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked No | 47c | 132.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed No | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8a…5d15backed Yes | 46c | 114.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 48c | 111.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 20c | 105.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…c12abacked No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27da…d24abacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…4037backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 39c | 97.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f97…ded2backed No | 53c | 95.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed No | 61c | 85.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 83.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 58c | 82.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…e72abacked Yes | 61c | 79.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Yes | 68c | 77.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…c4f1backed No | 33c | 71.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +241.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 16c | 70.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 47c | 67.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 76c | 65.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…3830backed No | 33c | 60.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -72%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5da6…370dbacked Yes | 55c | 56.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff75…2dbabacked Yes | 79c | 52.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb951…27b6backed Yes | 47c | 52.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 62c | 51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…4421backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…1e3abacked Yes | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 49.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 47.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…a061backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed No | 45c | 44.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked Yes | 55c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1b…6d06backed Yes | 74c | 40.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 49c | 37.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked Yes | 49c | 32.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d95…ed84backed No | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 48c | 29.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Yes | 71c | 28.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 62c | 27.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 73c | 18.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…7c94backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 16, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 17, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.