AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78322c43b6c76c3f29208ae75bf81d455c3b3b803c891a8945e25fe4376a3a8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $507,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $465,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $507,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 525 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No | 12c | 45,235$5,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,292.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f9…963abacked Yes | 53c | 29,823$15,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,062.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cce…78d9backed Yes | 58c | 23,977$13,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,136.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…44f1backed Yes | 31c | 23,660$7,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,254.29 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed No | 0c | 16,443$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7935backed Yes | 71c | 15,217$10,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,465.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…4e80backed Yes | 49c | 13,304$6,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,797.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49a…6f4cbacked No | 70c | 11,400$7,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,980 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…ae3abacked No | 0c | 9,989$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 39c | 9,745$3,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,804.7 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 68c | 8,575$5,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.13 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed No | 21c | 8,368$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,762.72 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked No | 9c | 7,460$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…9025backed No | 41c | 7,128$2,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,933.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…c64abacked No | 49c | 6,946$3,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,403.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…b665backed No | 65c | 6,530$4,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,272.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…e750backed No | 75c | 5,942$4,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,457.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…5cdcbacked Yes | 35c | 5,934$2,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,832.04 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 51c | 5,916$3,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,011.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…3418backed No | 9c | 5,760$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 26c | 5,532$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.32 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…dab0backed Yes | 39c | 5,235$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,195.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 78c | 4,943$3,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +375.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 73c | 4,913$3,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 4,809$1,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.24 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 5c | 4,673$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.37 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 58c | 4,181$2,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,423.91 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…3f48backed No | 36c | 3,967$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8f…cce3backed No | 44c | 3,690$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b1…9df8backed No | 56c | 3,514$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 65c | 3,326$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 32c | 3,318$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.07 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6d…e89cbacked No | 40c | 3,253$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…ae6fbacked No | 42c | 3,194$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x383f…5ec1backed Yes | 30c | 3,108$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,166.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc08…a012backed No | 58c | 3,048$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a5…6c30backed No | 43c | 3,043$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…bf35backed Yes | 64c | 3,003$1,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 43c | 3,000$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…38ffbacked No | 47c | 3,000$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.03 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc438…3ae6backed No | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 66c | 2,982$1,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.6 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 37c | 2,860$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.46 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…3eabbacked No | 15c | 2,798$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff2…d02bbacked Yes | 64c | 2,757$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c50…de45backed No | 75c | 2,516$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…7bd0backed Yes | 24c | 2,510$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,908.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…251cbacked Yes | 35c | 2,500$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed No | 22c | 2,345$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ec…2ecbbacked Yes | 45c | 2,318$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.63 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 54cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…9bdebacked No | 29c | 2,313$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…94e1backed No | 40c | 2,300$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 34c | 2,281$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…0f47backed No | 18c | 2,239$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…93f2backed Yes | 75c | 2,158$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed Yes | 63c | 2,124$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 72c | 2,095$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.18 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…722ebacked No | 14c | 2,093$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b33…9486backed No | 37c | 2,084$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed No | 52c | 2,073$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…6426backed Yes | 65c | 2,008$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.2 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x890e…8084backed No | 78c | 2,000$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 35c | 1,988$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.9 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 10c | 1,953$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.83 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…2a89backed Yes | 55c | 1,951$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x310e…5050backed No | 52c | 1,921$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…5637backed No | 1c | 1,848$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed No | 30c | 1,800$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.47 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…2896backed No | 47c | 1,720$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0456…7d45backed No | 63c | 1,694$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4737…a54abacked No | 37c | 1,630$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked No | 13c | 1,598$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked No | 42c | 1,582$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +188.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f3…9215backed No | 66c | 1,550$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…dc40backed No | 36c | 1,540$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5e…d157backed No | 55c | 1,531$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked No | 48c | 1,529$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.69 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 75c | 1,524$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.03 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked No | 41c | 1,437$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +185.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8c…0e59backed No | 14c | 1,428$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…9336backed Yes | 31c | 1,420$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 47c | 1,410$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.83 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 31c | 1,396$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ee…e513backed No | 49c | 1,367$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce9…ea32backed Yes | 35c | 1,313$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…c279backed No | 6c | 1,300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 62c | 1,300$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.99 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…3a28backed Yes | 72c | 1,257$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 55c | 1,230$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.06 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…0b02backed No | 49c | 1,200$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc197…8f95backed No | 70c | 1,185$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +177.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,145$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.86 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…4140backed No | 52c | 1,140$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d4…9db5backed No | 41c | 1,132$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed No | 66c | 1,107$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 59c | 1,104$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.7 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…dcefbacked No | 38c | 1,087$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0a…5f72backed No | 23c | 1,045$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked Yes | 56c | 1,040$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 52c | 1,033$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.44 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 16, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 17, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.