AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8e98eb598346fbb81c9ee06dd7e559fa62f8db8f34f2cbbd4f80e86a8dad5b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7578…6426backed Yes | 52c | 11,986$6,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,269.84 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7935backed Yes | 47c | 6,207$2,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,935.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…4e80backed No | 62c | 4,779$2,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed No | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked Yes | 19c | 1,705$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…5629backed No | 55c | 1,628$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x310e…5050backed No | 77c | 1,389$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 11c | 1,338$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.13 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…dc40backed No | 52c | 959.12$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…38ffbacked No | 56c | 850.2$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.43 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e9…558cbacked No | 72c | 826.95$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 58c | 799.99$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 75c | 777.9$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.46 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 9c | 773.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 53c | 739.13$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.44 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 33c | 683.27$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.84 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 646.53$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 6c | 634.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8478…4f11backed No | 60c | 603.95$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…1377backed No | 53c | 566.94$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.93 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 36c | 544.06$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.73 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed No | 41c | 520$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 40c | 501.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.21 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a0…2babbacked No | 50c | 477.74$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…339dbacked No | 50c | 402$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 37c | 400$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed Yes | 58c | 395.89$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.89 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…bf35backed Yes | 39c | 386.7$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 55c | 383.05$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.01 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 27c | 379.76$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.18 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 5c | 379.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed No | 57c | 368.18$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.18 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 32c | 363.18$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 361.7$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.81 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd59…0231backed Yes | 21c | 337.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 50c | 335.8$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.87 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 10c | 320.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 318.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…deb0backed No | 54c | 306.68$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.79 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 306.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 50c | 301.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked No | 64c | 293.22$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.79 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…7e10backed Yes | 39c | 285.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.31 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…88f2backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 75c | 276.04$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f3…1a88backed No | 54c | 275.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…0f0ebacked No | 48c | 253.92$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0456…7d45backed No | 79c | 253.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…5506backed No | 51c | 238.75$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…b9a3backed No | 43c | 229.79$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 23c | 229$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8a…5d15backed No | 48c | 205.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked Yes | 56c | 200$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked Yes | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 68c | 190.36$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed No | 45c | 185.81$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 175$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4310…bc04backed Yes | 13c | 173.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d34…15a1backed No | 59c | 170.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 59c | 169.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 53c | 162.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 62c | 157.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…a510backed Yes | 60c | 149.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 143.65$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…67dbbacked No | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c73…04f6backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6d…8f37backed Yes | 58c | 129.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 28c | 125.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…8a6cbacked Yes | 18c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 38c | 124.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 42c | 120.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.24 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 46c | 114.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…a414backed Yes | 29c | 111$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…43cdbacked No | 64c | 108$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 63c | 107.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…b075backed No | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 29c | 100.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4460…54d1backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c5…61e1backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…4037backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…d859backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b94…33d6backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…09c7backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 50c | 99.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 41c | 93.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa003…ab91backed No | 77c | 90.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 49c | 83.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa338…e65cbacked No | 69c | 83.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 32c | 82.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 40c | 81.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 57c | 80.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…08ccbacked Yes | 52c | 79.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4443…0f0fbacked No | 63c | 74.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 57c | 69.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 16, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 17, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.