AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7599692946a7740fee47587a923fb1c4686db5b70a0ce4d3fa8dbcd654cf653f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d90…bf35backed Yes | 14c | 1,521$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6339…e197backed Yes | 20c | 1,478$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 80c | 1,035$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.22 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2a…e921backed Yes | 19c | 516.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…74ddbacked Yes | 4c | 445.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 79c | 416.75$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f7…6d1bbacked Yes | 25c | 405.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a0…2babbacked No | 45c | 341.01$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 14c | 305.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 288.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…f937backed No | 74c | 265.84$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 225$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8b…d0c8backed Yes | 19c | 150.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…1e28backed Yes | 18c | 137.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8aa…007cbacked No | 75c | 132$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +252.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18cd…6fb1backed Yes | 20c | 100.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…8740backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 90.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 23c | 74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed Yes | 52c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 58c | 42.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 75c | 35.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 57c | 26.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 20.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6566…ea1ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 17, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 16, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.