AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b2b0ac174514a7ec6351f91a01edd5064cf670c29f539cdfcc4d88bdb9937d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $261,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $246,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3489…7935backed Yes | 80c | 24,532$19,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,921.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…38ffbacked No | 18c | 19,570$3,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,479.41 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…4e80backed Yes | 79c | 12,941$10,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,662.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…6426backed No | 14c | 8,345$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.68 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3723…5d55backed No | 20c | 8,272$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No | 16c | 7,393$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 14c | 5,188$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.13 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde6d…e89cbacked No | 15c | 5,101$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 16c | 4,947$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 13c | 4,756$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.15 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x310e…5050backed No | 19c | 4,726$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…9025backed Yes | 79c | 4,300$3,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 16c | 4,134$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed No | 37c | 3,964$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.82 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 17c | 3,000$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…3649backed No | 9c | 2,569$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed No | 16c | 2,503$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 2,412$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.57 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 15c | 2,366$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 1c | 2,073$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 79c | 2,068$1,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…4140backed No | 21c | 1,914$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 18c | 1,908$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.34 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…83c7backed No | 17c | 1,863$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 19c | 1,793$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.72 | 165 | 19.4%32 W · 133 L | -21.3wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,603$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes | 78c | 1,382$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.29 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af5…cfc4backed No | 17c | 1,301$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 10c | 1,297$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.75 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd59…0231backed Yes | 77c | 1,296$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 10c | 1,196$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed No | 20c | 1,166$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.54 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d9…f100backed Yes | 77c | 1,166$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed No | 21c | 1,150$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 4c | 1,123$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 18c | 1,042$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.77 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…dcefbacked No | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…3f48backed No | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 17c | 902.94$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.27 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6795…c55dbacked No | 17c | 899.77$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed No | 13c | 899.34$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 11c | 850.68$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…3eabbacked No | 22c | 849.43$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…c5cbbacked No | 12c | 828.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 19c | 808.1$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.89 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked No | 20c | 803.46$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…5160backed No | 13c | 769.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…862bbacked No | 11c | 761.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 743.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ec…2ecbbacked Yes | 78c | 740.8$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.11 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 54cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 20c | 723.34$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.68 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4737…a54abacked No | 14c | 718.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…7bd0backed Yes | 37c | 706.28$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed No | 14c | 700.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 12c | 655.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 323 | 29.1%94 W · 229 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…169dbacked No | 11c | 648.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 13c | 635$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 22c | 609.04$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.96 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…7d42backed No | 23c | 600$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…2e01backed No | 22c | 600$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…deb0backed No | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…05bbbacked No | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed No | 28c | 543.67$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.26 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…e865backed No | 23c | 509.26$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b60…a55bbacked No | 28c | 499.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed No | 18c | 499.98$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…a414backed No | 26c | 486.69$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…7e10backed No | 10c | 479.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 8c | 470.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec7…367fbacked No | 12c | 425.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 19c | 420.7$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 6c | 410$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 20c | 409.56$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.31 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 3c | 409.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4460…54d1backed No | 23c | 400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…f0c4backed No | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…c1bcbacked No | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7f…9941backed No | 21c | 400$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed No | 5c | 398$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 11c | 388.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed No | 13c | 379.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…d06fbacked No | 12c | 367.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e6…060cbacked No | 22c | 367.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…722ebacked No | 17c | 359.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 31c | 346.88$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…41d7backed No | 10c | 340.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…1377backed No | 11c | 332.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 328.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2af1…6b27backed No | 16c | 328.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 28c | 320$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2c…a30ebacked Yes | 69c | 317$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e5…7134backed Yes | 76c | 316.54$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d4…9db5backed No | 19c | 316.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed No | 24c | 312.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…382cbacked No | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…ba00backed No | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b94…33d6backed No | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 22c | 299.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…43cdbacked No | 15c | 290.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0456…7d45backed No | 20c | 285.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 16, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 17, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.