AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa656c3d0a13e7cac35fd8b9f0c877a01908b495679529f40b1a6938c1add781e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b20…38ffbacked No | 5c | 15,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 5c | 8,405$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.05 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 4c | 5,188$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 4,637$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.86 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 0c | 4,070$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 3c | 2,990$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 2c | 2,645$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 3c | 2,315$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 5c | 2,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 4c | 1,265$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,210$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked No | 6c | 1,170$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,034$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 2c | 925.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff1…e868backed No | 2c | 883.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0528…ca3fbacked Yes | 70c | 773.51$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 2c | 708$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146e…ab0bbacked No | 5c | 692.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 4c | 599.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 5c | 595.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 5c | 561.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 3c | 521.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 8c | 388.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…a5e9backed Yes | 80c | 251.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 32c | 173$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 14c | 103$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5efe…5f55backed Yes | 76c | 100.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 24c | 75.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed Yes | 74c | 67.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…838abacked No | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 72c | 20.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…d1a1backed Yes | 76c | 20.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 16, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 17, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.