AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25ecc56fd4f2853fa7f7a1068d9cbab84bfebada5eae442610f0e4547c50e1e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75a2…6992backed Yes | 54c | 17,384$9,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,388.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…1e81backed Yes | 9c | 5,173$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310e…5050backed No | 13c | 4,768$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,130.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 4,463$2,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.29 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 41c | 4,146$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.4 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No | 16c | 3,927$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,307.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 50c | 2,744$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.04 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…ae6fbacked No | 16c | 2,619$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,210.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 27c | 2,592$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.89 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked No | 66c | 1,800$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.57 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 55c | 1,539$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.85 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde6d…e89cbacked No | 24c | 1,452$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…9025backed No | 27c | 1,450$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.17 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…3eabbacked No | 16c | 1,277$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed No | 45c | 1,133$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.38 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 73c | 1,061$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.67 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 46c | 1,022$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.86 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…b078backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…bcd2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc197…8f95backed No | 20c | 958.22$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +177.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8f…cce3backed No | 22c | 918.01$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 24c | 862.1$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.51 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed No | 24c | 799.98$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.99 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5e…d157backed No | 18c | 778.42$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 18c | 743.35$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.23 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b33…9486backed No | 19c | 737.18$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d4…9db5backed No | 15c | 731.22$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 30c | 712.69$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.26 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 16c | 685.39$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.54 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…a8c1backed Yes | 79c | 663.48$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 76c | 658.1$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.48 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 617.83$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.11 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 31c | 549.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe198…8b53backed Yes | 7c | 532.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…1752backed No | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 75c | 460$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…9336backed No | 52c | 459.77$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89d9…f100backed No | 33c | 452.11$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdc…f1b6backed No | 22c | 452.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +346.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked No | 17c | 443.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +188.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 76c | 418.62$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.15 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 413.49$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.11 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0456…7d45backed No | 19c | 413.47$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 79c | 407.16$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.58 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…79b0backed No | 11c | 330.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +63%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked No | 26c | 312.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…7f8dbacked No | 16c | 307.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +177.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 16c | 298.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.72 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd18e…a378backed No | 35c | 284.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…4037backed No | 74c | 270$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…3767backed No | 9c | 267.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…3649backed No | 20c | 259.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 26c | 253.8$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.81 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 17c | 252.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce75…588abacked No | 20c | 210$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 12c | 200.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…34debacked No | 17c | 192.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0adc…f010backed Yes | 27c | 185.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked Yes | 6c | 181.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a0…2babbacked Yes | 51c | 180$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…34c6backed No | 16c | 170.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +208.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked No | 31c | 162.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7503…8067backed No | 22c | 154.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7af5…cfc4backed No | 7c | 146$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164b…8b5abacked Yes | 23c | 128.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 48c | 127.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…5637backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4310…bc04backed No | 20c | 120.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…e1ccbacked Yes | 25c | 120.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b07…d4a8backed No | 25c | 119.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +298.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…dd2bbacked No | 19c | 107.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +439%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…d3f0backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 13c | 97.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f2…3860backed No | 16c | 92.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked No | 74c | 87.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…ce38backed Yes | 23c | 85.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 76.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc306…3bb9backed No | 26c | 68.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +206.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…cbfebacked No | 16c | 65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…722ebacked No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 33c | 61.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…c5ebbacked Yes | 54c | 50.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b96…d3e6backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 59c | 48.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…9283backed No | 36c | 41.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…d0dabacked Yes | 31c | 41.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 54c | 31.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…0eeebacked Yes | 38c | 27.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…00dfbacked No | 76c | 21.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 16, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 17, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.